Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
May 28, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202613%▼ 4
- January 31, 202724%▲ 1
- February 28, 202729%▼ 1
2 more
- June 30, 202758%▼ 1
- December 31, 202763%▼ 3
Install
When will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida? (2026)
The odds
28%Before 2027
- Before 202728%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Before 2027: 27% on Oct 20, 28% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 28% | ▼ 2 | 26¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 43.5K |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 48.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Starship, SpaceX, SpaceX's Starship
Search ›- NASA Confirms SpaceX's Starship Refueling Estimate! [17:21]NASA Confirms SpaceX's Starship Refueling Estimate! | 17:21 Ellie in Space | 232K subscribers | 1,683 views | October 23, 2026 Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794 Thank you very much and God bless you. If you…
-
SpaceX Starship Flight 15 Plans to Catch Ship, Super HeavySpaceX has been steadily building toward a milestone that would close the full reuse loop on the world's largest rocket, and the next test flight appears set to be the most ambitious yet. The company has now laid out what it is targeting… -
SpaceX Starship Flies First Revenue Mission, Deploys 26 Starlink V3 SatsSpaceX crossed a milestone it has been building toward for years: on September 28, 2026, Starship flew its first revenue-generating mission, delivering 26 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit. The achievement — confirmed in SpaceX's Q3 2026… - What SpaceX Just Revealed About Starship Is Incredible!This video, hosted by Marcus House, covers a packed week of space news with a primary focus on SpaceX's Starship program and other aerospace developments. Starship and SpaceX Updates: Flight 14 Recap: The video highlights Flight 14, noting…
-
NASA says Artemis program adjustments improve shot at 2028 moon landingUpdated on: October 23, 2026 / 8:05 PM EDT / CBS News NASA is pressing ahead with Artemis moon program revisions to give the agency its best shot at a lunar landing in 2028 using a lander built by either Elon Musk's SpaceX or Jeff Bezos'… -
Why would Musk merge SpaceX and Tesla?Elon Musk said Tuesday that a merger of his two companies SpaceX and Tesla would be "a good idea" and that they had formed special committees to discuss a union, sending shares of the space and technology company up 8% in extended… -
SpaceX's Starship Catch Could Unlock Valuation Upside, Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas Says Ahead of SPCX Q3 EarningsMorgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas released an investor note on Monday, saying that the Starship rocket’s next launch could be a catalyst for Space Exploration Technologies Corp. SPCX ahead of the company’s third-quarter result set to be… -
SpaceX will try catching Starship and its booster for first time, Musk saysSpaceX CEO Elon Musk said the company would attempt to catch Starship and its booster next month, with the goal of recovering the entire orbital launch system for the first time. If successful, Musk said, the attempt would mark the first… -
SpaceX to attempt Starship catch on next flight, with eye on rapid cadence increase“We have had significant constructive engagement with the FAA.” In its current iteration, SpaceX is largely a data company seeking to provide enormous amounts of compute for artificial intelligence. During an earnings call on Tuesday… -
NASA lays out plan for Artemis 3 moon-lander test flight — but when will it launch?The agency just gave us a detailed look at the crucial docking test. But it's unclear exactly when it will take flight. NASA just gave us our best look yet at its Artemis III moon-lander test flight. The agency laid out a detailed concept… -
SpaceX eyes full Starship recovery as Starlink subs miss estimatesMusk says catching Starship's upper stage is 'more likely than not' on the next flight. Starlink, meanwhile, added 1.6M subs, short of forecasts, as ARPU fell to $69. SpaceX's Elon Musk confirmed Tuesday that the company will attempt to… -
Latest estimate for Starship launches required to support a Moon landing? 22.“We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander.” NASA does not have, nor want, nuclear weapons. But when it comes to a particular metric that is part of the Artemis Program to land people on the Moon, NASA guards a…
Related markets
All space ›How many launches will SpaceX have in October? (Oct 2026)
10.4median
517
Median 10.4Middle half 10.1 – 10.7
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?
74%November 30, 2026
- November 30, 202674%▼ 2
- Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?66%▼ 1
- Chopsticks catch Starship?54%▼ 14
4 more
- Super Heavy booster explodes?41%▲ 1
- Successful splash down?25%
- November 15, 202621%▲ 4
- October 31, 20261%▼ 1
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? (Before 2027)
23%Before Jan 20, 2029
- Before Jan 20, 202923%
- Before Jan 1, 202814%
- Before Jan 1, 20275%
2 more
- Before Dec 1, 20263%
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
Sep 20, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 20263%
- December 31, 202769%▲ 4
Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
$930.52Bmedian
$600B$1.3T
Median $930.52BMiddle half $850.73B – $983B
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions