Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

Kalshi Economy › Jobs For Nov 27 · $3.2K traded · $880 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

44.6median

21.061

Median 44.6Middle half 40.8 – 47.7

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Below 29 million	1%			2¢	$50.00	164
Between 29 and 36.99 million	4%		1¢	6¢	$16.67	269
Between 37 and 42.99 million	32%		29¢	35¢	$2.86	5.7K
Between 43 and 48.99 million	50%		45¢	54¢	$1.85	1.7K
Between 49 and 55 million	9%	▼ 1	6¢	11¢	$9.09	3.1K
Above 55 million	6%		1¢	10¢	$10.00	4.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Bristol Bay

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onAlaska Department of Fish and Game

MeasuredNov 27, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Trading closesDec 4, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Traded$3.2K (15,252 contracts)

This week$3.2K

At stake$880

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is below 29 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.