When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $1 today · $726 traded · $336 at stake · prices read 11 h ago

The odds

19%Before Jan 1, 2027

Before Nov 1, 20261%
Before Dec 1, 20263%▼ 1
Before Jan 1, 202719%▼ 4

How the odds have moved

Before Nov 1, 2026: 1% on Oct 19, 1% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Sep 1, 2026	1%				$100.00	364
Before Oct 1, 2026	2%				$50.00	2.5K
Before Nov 1, 2026	1%			2¢	$50.00	2.3K
Before Dec 1, 2026	3%	▼ 1	1¢	5¢	$20.00	2.2K
Before Jan 1, 2027	19%	▼ 4	17¢	29¢	$3.45	3.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Senate

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Senate Republicans lambaste potential coronavirus dealPOLITICO · 20 h agoThe pushback from GOP senators shows just how difficult it will be to approve a new bill. 10/10/2020 1:25 PM EDT Senate Republicans lashed out at a potential framework for a new coronavirus deal between the Trump administration and Speaker…
A tale of two independent Senate hopefulsNPR · 28 h agoAs a handful of independent candidates run for U.S. Senate, questions about the role of the Democratic party in clearing a path or fronting their own candidates abound. A tale of two independent Senate hopefuls As a handful of independent…
Michigan US Senate race is ‘still competitive,’ Democratic congresswoman saysFox News · 21 h agoRep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., discusses the Michigan U.S. Senate race between GOP nominee Mike Rogers and Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed on ‘The Story.’ Michigan US Senate race is ‘still competitive,’ Democratic congresswoman says Rep…
Manchin, Ocasio-Cortez are closers in Maine Senate racesemafor.com · 27 h agoNORWAY, Maine – Susan Collins and Joe Manchin arrived right on time – Maine’s Republican senator and West Virginia’s last Democratic senator, in matching red fleece, making a cheerful Wednesday stop a New Balance factory. Collins…
Susan Collins Touts Canada Tariff Exemptions in Tight Maine Senate RaceNewsweek · 20 h agoOct 23, 2026 at 03:21 PM EDT Republican Senator Susan Collins announced Friday that U.S. tariffs will exempt nine categories of Canadian imports used by Maine agricultural businesses after she pressed the Trump administration for relief…
GOP scrambles to protect unexpectedly vulnerable senate seatscnn.com · 40 h agoRepublicans are pouring campaign cash in three normally Republican strongholds. Tight races in Mississippi, South Carolina and Kansas have the GOP privately panicking. GOP scrambles to protect unexpectedly vulnerable senate seats…
Exclusive / Democratic AI PAC takes its fight to Senate Republicanssemafor.com · 28 h agoTomorrow Together, an AI-focused Democratic PAC, is moving into Senate races with $2.5 million in ads against Republican Sens. Jon Husted in Ohio and Roger Marshall in Kansas, according to an announcement shared first with Semafor. The…
WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in AustinFox News · 19 h agoDemocrat James Talarico speaks to supporters and hosts a "Clear Eyes, Full Hearts" campaign tour concert in Austin, Texas. WATCH LIVE: Texas Senate nominee James Talarico holds campaign concert in Austin Democrat James Talarico speaks to…
Trump's tariffs loom over Maine Senate raceCNBC · 45 h agoCNBC Trump's tariffs loom over Maine Senate race
Texas Senate race tied as early voting surgesFox News · 42 h agoFox News host Will Cain discusses the latest in the deadlocked Texas Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico on 'The Will Cain Show' ... Texas Senate race tied as early voting surges Fox News host Will Cain discusses the latest…
Justice Department sues to block Alaska Senate race results if Republican losesCBS News · 21 h agoAt President Trump's direction, the Justice Department sued Friday to block the certification of the Alaska Senate race if Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan loses, citing the presence of another candidate on the ballot bearing the…
Examining the Muslim Brotherhood claims in Michigan’s Senate raceThe Washington Post · 33 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Republican Mike Rogers…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onWhite House, Library of Congress

Trading closesJan 1, 2027 10:00 AM ET

Traded$726 (10,463 contracts)

Today$1

This week$726

At stake$336

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If a reconciliation bill has passed the Senate after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

BILL Holdings, Inc.BILL · about the company50.70+0.06%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.