Who will be Chair of Senate Commerce? (For the 120th Congress)
99%Maria Cantwell
- Maria Cantwell99%▲ 1
- Brian Schatz<1%▼ 2
- Edward J. Markey<1%▼ 2
Install
Which senators will back Schumer for Senate Democratic leader? (Before Jan 3, 2027)
The odds
99%John Fetterman
- John Fetterman99%▲ 6
- Ruben Gallego95%▲ 8
- Kirsten Gillibrand94%▲ 3
- Mark Kelly90%▲ 5
- Richard Blumenthal87%▲ 2
- Maggie Hassan76%▼ 2
- Mark Warner74%▲ 2
- Raphael Warnock64%▼ 2
- Scott Colom40%▼ 10
- Bernie Sanders6%▼ 1
- Elissa Slotkin5%▲ 2
- Abdul El-Sayed5%▲ 2
2 more
- Chris Van Hollen3%▼ 2
- Martin Heinrich2%▼ 60
How the odds have moved
John Fetterman: 91% on Nov 13, 99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 15, 8 AM ETJohn Fetterman: 92% → 99%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Fetterman | 99% | ▲ 6 | 80¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 2.0K |
| Ruben Gallego | 95% | ▲ 8 | 83¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 2.6K |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 94% | ▲ 3 | 89¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 331 |
| Mark Kelly | 90% | ▲ 5 | 82¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 95.00 |
| Richard Blumenthal | 87% | ▲ 2 | 83¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 495 |
| Maggie Hassan | 76% | ▼ 2 | 73¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | 107 |
| Mark Warner | 74% | ▲ 2 | 8¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 741 |
| Raphael Warnock | 64% | ▼ 2 | 46¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 2.0K |
| Scott Colom | 40% | ▼ 10 | 28¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 1.1K |
| Bernie Sanders | 6% | ▼ 1 | 3¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 625 |
| Elissa Slotkin | 5% | ▲ 2 | 10¢ | $10.00 | 2.9K | |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 5% | ▲ 2 | 3¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 9.5K |
| Chris Van Hollen | 3% | ▼ 2 | 5¢ | $20.00 | 482 | |
| Martin Heinrich | 2% | ▼ 60 | 71¢ | $1.41 | 119 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Senate Democratic, Schumer, John Fetterman
Search ›- John Fetterman says he hopes there are bipartisan pursuits even after midtermsSenator John Fetterman joins 'Saturday in America' for his first interview since the midterms. Fetterman discusses the rise of far-left candidates in the Democratic Party and potential investigations. Senator John Fetterman joins 'Saturday…
- John Fetterman Signals Breaking Point With Democrats Over Van HollenNewsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search.to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Sen. John Fetterman has signaled that he could reach a breaking point with the Democratic Party if…
- John Fetterman Among Favorites to Be 2028 GOP Pennsylvania Senate NomineeNewsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search.to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Pennsylvania Democratic Senator John Fetterman has emerged as a leading contender to become the 2028…
- DSA Backs Challenge to Schumer as Senate Democratic LeaderNewsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search.to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) has backed a challenge to Senator Chuck Schumer's bid to…
- Sen. Bernie Sanders supports Chris Van Hollen's bid to challenge Schumer for Senate Democratic leader postPolitics Sen. Bernie Sanders supports Chris Van Hollen's bid to challenge Schumer for Senate Democratic leader post 'The American people voted for change,' Sanders said in a post on X By Alex Nitzberg Fox News Published November 13, 2026…
- John Fetterman’s First 2028 Challenger Has Campaign Account SuspendedNewsweek is a Trust Project member See more of our trusted coverage when you search.to see more of our trusted coverage when you search. Ahmed Moor, a Palestinian American who announced his run to oust Senator John Fetterman in 2028, has…
- John Fetterman Isn't Too Happy With Chris Van Hollen's Senate Leadership BidDemocrat Sen. Chris Van Hollen, who is in the running to assume the Majority Leader position against Chuck Schumer. His candidacy may be what gets Sen. John Fetterman to finally leave the Democrat Party. 🚨 HOLY CRAP! Sen. John Fetterman…
- John Fetterman warns there is no more common ground with his caucus. Then he reveals exactly what he thinks of the man challenging his seat‘Worst impulses.’ Save us as a preferred source in Google Senator John Fetterman is making it clear that his patience with the far-left wing of the Democratic Party is wearing thin. During a recent appearance on Fox News’ Saturday in…
- John Fetterman Calls Himself a ‘Pro Data Center Democrat’ and Doubles Down on IsraelSen. John Fetterman called himself a “pro data center Democrat” and pledged continued support for Israel on November 14, defending 2 positions that have deepened his rift with fellow Democrats. In his first interview since the midterms…
- Van Hollen to challenge Schumer for Senate Democratic leaderWASHINGTON | Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland said Thursday that he will run for Senate Majority Leader in the next Congress, setting up a challenge to Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer after the party swept to power in the…
- Ahmed Moor, John Fetterman’s first challenger, envisions ‘Palestine-Israel, from the river to the sea’United States Ahmed Moor, John Fetterman’s first challenger, envisions ‘Palestine-Israel, from the river to the sea’ Gaza-born writer seeks “the emancipation of the Palestinians, the right-sizing of our understanding of equal rights, where…
- Van Hollen Launches Bid to Topple Schumer as Senate Democratic LeaderBy AG News Staff November 13, 2026 Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer now faces an official challenger for his job, as Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland announced he is running to lead the incoming Senate majority, Fox News reported…
Related markets
All congress ›How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
98%At least 22
2023
Will Jensen Huang testify in front of Congress? (Before Jul 2027)
86%Before Jan 2027
- Before Jan 202786%▼ 4
- Before Jul 202796%
Who will be Chair of Senate Environment and Public Works? (For the 120th Congress)
98%Jeff Merkley
- Jeff Merkley98%▲ 4
- Ed Markey1%▼ 3
- Sheldon Whitehouse1%▼ 3
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
14.94%median
-100%100%
Median 14.94%Middle half 14.39% – 15.49%
How many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?
1median
13
Median 1Middle half 1 – 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions