How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 3, 2027 · $194 today · $37.2K traded · $18.1K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

17.8median

923

Median 17.8Middle half 16.2 – 19.7

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
At least 10	98%		96¢		$1.02	152
At least 11	98%	▲ 1	97¢		$1.02	3.4K
At least 12	97%	▲ 1	95¢	99¢	$1.01	9.2K
At least 13	96%		93¢	98¢	$1.02	1.4K
At least 14	95%		92¢	97¢	$1.03	5.5K
At least 15	86%	▼ 2	84¢	88¢	$1.14	11.4K
At least 16	79%		75¢	82¢	$1.22	1.4K
At least 17	63%	▼ 1	61¢	65¢	$1.54	3.9K
At least 18	48%		46¢	49¢	$2.04	2.0K
At least 19	35%		34¢	35¢	$2.86	6.1K
At least 20	20%		18¢	22¢	$4.55	6.5K
At least 21	12%	▲ 1	10¢	13¢	$7.69	3.6K
At least 22	5%	▼ 1	3¢	7¢	$14.29	5.3K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: U.S. Senate, Senate, Midterms

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onThe New York Times, The Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ

Trading closesJan 3, 2027 8:59 AM ET

Traded$37.2K (59,673 contracts)

Today$194

This week$37.2K

At stake$18.1K

In the news156 headlines today, 3,421 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the number of U.S. Senate seats won by Democratic Party candidates is at least 10 in the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.