Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? (Before 2027)
23%Before Jan 20, 2029
- Before Jan 20, 202923%
- Before Jan 1, 202814%
- Before Jan 1, 20274%
2 more
- Before Dec 1, 20263%
- Before Nov 1, 20261%
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Will a humanoid robot walk on Mars before a human does? (Before 2035)
The odds
51%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 53% on Oct 20, 51% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51% | ▼ 1 | 48¢ | 54¢ | $1.85 | 57.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Mars
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Japan launches mission to Mars’ moons | CNNJapan launched a spacecraft towards the two Martian moons, Phobos and Deimos, to collect samples and return them to Earth. The newly built Shanghai Grand Opera House looks gravity-defying and its design has taken inspiration from an… -
Dominic Fike, Ashe, Bruno Mars & More: Highlights of This Week’s Billboard ChartsAll of Billboard's charts update each Tuesday. Tuesday is new Billboard chart day each week! As all charts update each Tuesday, here’s a look at highlights of the latest rankings, dated Oct. 24 and reflecting the Oct. 9-15 measurement… -
Japan launches historic MMX sample-return mission to Mars' moon Phobos"We'll still find the happenin' hot spots, we'll still cruise the cool casinos. You'll still fly me to the moon, although the moon to which you'll fly me could be Phobos or Deimos…" 🎶 Japan's groundbreaking mission to Mars is officially… -
Mission blasts off for Mars to grab a piece of its moonWatch: Spacecraft heading to Mars' moon Phobos lifts off from Japan A spacecraft has launched from Japan headed for Mars' moon Phobos, where it will attempt to grab some moondust and bring it back to Earth. If it is successful, this will… -
Japan launches spacecraft to mysterious moons of Mars in a bold mission to bring home soil samplesA Japanese spacecraft rocketed toward Mars on Tuesday on an unprecedented quest to explore its mysterious moons and bring back samples. Five of the world’s space agencies joined forces for the five-year mission that will attempt to land a… -
‘Once-in-a-lifetime chance’: Japan launches historic mission to collect rocks from Mars’s moon PhobosScientists hope Martian material collected will shed light on the origins of the solar system and life on Earth Japan has successfully launched a spacecraft on an unprecedented mission to bring back samples from one of Mars’s moons that… -
On this day in space! Oct. 19, 2016: Europe's ExoMars orbiter and Schiaparelli lander arrive at MarsThe ExoMars 2016 orbiter survived the Mars arrival. Sadly, its Schiaparelli lander did not. On Oct. 19, 2016, the European Space Agency's ExoMars mission arrived at Mars! ExoMars 2016 consists of the Trace Gas Orbiter and the Schiaparelli… -
Europe's ExoMars 2016 Mars Landing: Complete CoverageOn Oct. 19, 2016, the European Space Agency's ExoMars 2016 mission attempted to land the Schiaparelli module on Mars while its mothership, the Trace Gas Orbiter, began own mission around the Red Planet. See our full coverage of the Mars… -
Japan launching bold sample-return mission to Mars moon Phobos today: Watch it liveThe MMX mission is scheduled to lift off today (Oct. 19) at 3:41 p.m. ET (1941 GMT). Japan will launch an epic mission to Mars today (Oct. 19), and you can watch the action live. The Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) mission is scheduled to… -
Mission set to blast off for Mars to grab a piece of its moonA space mission is set to launch on Monday that will attempt to grab a piece of Mars' moon Phobos and bring it back to Earth. If it is successful, this will become the first time a sample has been returned from Mars or its moons to be… -
What exactly are Mars’ two moons? Japan’s new mission will land on one to find outMars’ largely unexplored moons are getting their moment in the spotlight as a first-of-its-kind mission prepares to take flight. The red planet has many unsolved riddles, but the Japanese-led Martian Moons eXploration project will focus… -
Returning samples from a Mars moon: Inside the science of Japan's bold MMX missionMMX could be the first spacecraft to ever return from orbit around the Red Planet. Japan's mission to Mars is one of the most ambitious in spaceflight history. It aims to become the first spacecraft to return to Earth from Mars orbit…
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How many launches will SpaceX have in October? (Oct 2026)
10.4median
517
Median 10.4Middle half 10.1 – 10.7
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$926.86Bmedian
$600B$1.3T
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SpaceX Starship 15th launch? (SpaceX Starship (15th launch))
Nov 22, 2026even chance by
- Before Oct 30, 20261%▼ 1
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.