Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%
- 25 bps increase5%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Number of US oil rigs at end of 2026
The odds
463.8median
360650
Median 463.8Middle half 435.9 – 495
How the odds have moved
Median: 465.5 on Oct 20, 463.8 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 370 | 98% | 97¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 6.00 | |
| At least 380 | 98% | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.00 | |
| At least 390 | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 240 | |
| At least 400 | 95% | 93¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 783 | |
| At least 410 | 92% | 90¢ | 94¢ | $1.06 | 72.00 | |
| At least 420 | 88% | 85¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 551 | |
| At least 430 | 84% | 81¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 6.8K | |
| At least 440 | 69% | 64¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 124 | |
| At least 450 | 61% | 59¢ | 63¢ | $1.59 | 128 | |
| At least 500 | 21% | 18¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 104 | |
| At least 550 | 5% | 3¢ | 6¢ | $16.67 | 1.0K | |
| At least 600 | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 282 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
Related markets
All economy ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 2
- No change20%
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
5.81%median
1.74%8.24%
Median 5.81%Middle half 3.08% – 7.16%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
73%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike73%▼ 2
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%
- Hike–Hike–Hike2%▼ 1
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Pause2%▲ 1
- Other1%
Wisconsin corn yield in 2026
182.8median
160200
Median 182.8Middle half 178.2 – 187.8
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions