US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report (Oct 28, 2026)
6%median
-12%12%
Median 6%
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US new home sales for September (September 2026)
The odds
646,667median
580,000760,000
Median 646,667Middle half 624,906 – 678,750
How the odds have moved
Median: 653,000 on Oct 20, 646,667 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 600,000 | 91% | ▼ 1 | 89¢ | 93¢ | $1.08 | 1.8K |
| Above 620,000 | 82% | ▼ 4 | 80¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 1.4K |
| Above 640,000 | 55% | ▲ 5 | 50¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 740 |
| Above 660,000 | 40% | ▲ 4 | 35¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 2.3K |
| Above 680,000 | 24% | ▲ 3 | 19¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 343 |
| Above 700,000 | 12% | ▲ 3 | 7¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 495 |
| Above 720,000 | 7% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 25.00 |
| Above 740,000 | 4% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | $12.50 | 56.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
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705,678median
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Median 705,678Middle half 701,441 – 709,915
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1.38median
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions