Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

Polymarket Economy › Housing Closes Jan 14, 2027 · $790 today · $1K traded · $6.6K at stake · prices read 15 min ago

The odds

67%↑ 7.50%

Reaches 7.5%67%

Falls to 6.5%15%
Falls to 6.25%15%
Falls to 6%5%
Falls to 5.9%3%
Falls to 5.7%2%
Falls to 5.5%2%

Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
✓ ↑ 6.20%	>99%		100¢	100¢
✓ ↑ 6.30%	>99%	▼ 2	100¢	100¢		$29.4K
✓ ↑ 6.50%	>99%	▲ 13	100¢	100¢		$6.9K
✓ ↑ 6.75%	>99%	▲ 2	100¢	100¢		$5.5K
✓ ↑ 7.00%	>99%	▲ 10	100¢	100¢		$8K
✓ ↑ 7.25%	>99%	▲ 11	100¢	100¢		$3.3K
↑ 7.50%	67%	▼ 8	63¢	70¢	$1.43	$1.9K
↓ 5.50%	2%		2¢	5¢	$21.28	$3K
↓ 5.70%	2%		1¢	1¢		$12.4K
↓ 5.90%	3%		1¢	6¢	$16.95	$11.6K
↓ 6.00%	5%		4¢	5¢	$20.00	$4.1K
✓ ↓ 6.00%	>99%	▲ 27	100¢	100¢		$673
↓ 6.25%	15%	▲ 7	9¢	21¢	$4.76	$1.9K
↓ 6.50%	15%	▼ 3	13¢	17¢	$5.88	$11.6K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Mortgage Rate

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesJan 14, 2027 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1K

Today$790

This week$1K

At stake$6.6K

In the news25 headlines today, 387 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before Decembe

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Prices it is about

iShares U.S. Home ConstructionITB · moves with it84.94−1.69%
State Street SPDR S&P HomebuildXHB · moves with it94.13−0.82%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.