Will the NASDAQ-100 finish positive in 2026?

Kalshi Finance › Indexes Closes Dec 31 · $743 today · $15K traded · $65K at stake · prices read 22 min ago

The odds

87%chance

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	87%		86¢	88¢	$1.14	172.9K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Nasdaq, tech stocks

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Finance › Indexes

Will the S&P finish positive this year? (2026)

93%chance▲ 3

Finance › Indexes

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 19?

$767.50median

$745$805

Median $767.50Middle half $766.25 – $768.75

Finance › Indexes

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of October 19 2026?

$774.76high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $774.76 and as low as $760.44.

Reaches $770>99%
Reaches $77548%

Falls to $76576%
Falls to $76048%

Already reached: ↑ $765

Finance › Indexes

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in October 2026?

$779.02high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $779.02 and as low as $753.47.

Reaches $770>99%
Reaches $78045%

Falls to $76068%
Falls to $75041%

Already reached: ↑ $780, ↑ $770, ↓ $760, ↑ $770, ↑ $770, ↓ $770

Finance › Indexes

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

70%S&P 500

S&P 50070%▲ 2
Bitcoin18%
Gold6%▼ 2

Finance › Indexes

S&P close price end of 2026?

7,824median

3,8009,200

Median 7,824Middle half 7,397 – 8,050

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onGoogle Finance

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 4:00 PM ET

Traded$15K (172,897 contracts)

Today$743

This week$15K

At stake$65K

In the news545 headlines today, 3,423 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 25249.85, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.