Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
25.6median
1560
Median 25.6Middle half 20.3 – 30.8
Install
Oregon Senate margin of victory (November 3, 2026)
The odds
25median
1135
Median 25Middle half 19 – 29.9
How the odds have moved
Median: 24.2 on Oct 20, 25 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merkley, 13+ pts | 91% | ▲ 4 | 90¢ | 91¢ | $1.10 | 600 |
| Merkley, 15+ pts | 87% | ▲ 3 | 86¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 31.00 |
| Merkley, 17+ pts | 82% | ▲ 4 | 81¢ | 82¢ | $1.22 | 244 |
| Merkley, 19+ pts | 75% | ▲ 3 | 74¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | 658 |
| Merkley, 21+ pts | 70% | ▲ 4 | 65¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 437 |
| Merkley, 23+ pts | 60% | ▲ 5 | 55¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 34.00 |
| Merkley, 25+ pts | 50% | ▲ 4 | 45¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 | 286 |
| Merkley, 27+ pts | 39% | ▲ 3 | 34¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 34.00 |
| Merkley, 29+ pts | 29% | ▲ 2 | 24¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | 51.00 |
| Merkley, 31+ pts | 20% | ▲ 1 | 15¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 132 |
| Merkley, 33+ pts | 13% | ▲ 1 | 8¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 27.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Oregon Senate
Search ›- Governor of Oregon : Senate Bill 243 Signing Remarks : Speeches : State of OregonAn official website of the State of Oregon Learn How you know » (how to identify a Oregon.gov website) An official website of the State of Oregon » 900 Court Street, Suite 254 Salem, OR 97301-4047 A .gov website belongs to an official…
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Jackson Co. State Senate race being watched statewideWatch the Oregon Gubernatorial Debates hosted by KOBI-TV and KTVZ, and view other elections coverage. MEDFORD, Ore.– As ballots begin arriving in mailboxes for the November 3rd general election, only one Rogue Valley race is being watched… - Oregon Senate District 6 candidates' views on data centers, Eugene airportThree candidates are vying for Oregon Senate District 6 seat, which represents eastern Lane County, most of Linn County and southern Marion County. Farmer and business owner Jack Tibbetts, dietician and lifelong Sweet Home resident Sierrah…
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Actor, activist Jane Fonda makes appearances, endorsements in OregonActor and progressive activist Jane Fonda made appearances in Salem and Portland last week to support Oregon Democratic candidates ahead of the Nov. 3 election. Fonda, 88, a two-time Oscar winner known for her roles in the TV show "Grace… -
What Does It Mean to Be a Republican in Josephine County?I don’t know that any of my Republican friends would have sat down and called those things “Republican values.” They were simply values they lived. And lately I have found myself wondering: Are these still the qualities we expect from… -
Third party-candidate, massive donation dump fuel Southern Oregon Senate race toss-upPublished 1:10 pm Friday, October 16, 2026 More than $1 million in just the last month has poured into two candidates’ campaigns for a Southern Oregon state Senate seat being vacated by a Democrat who narrowly won it in 2022. Retiring… -
Third party-candidate, massive campaign donations fuel Southern Oregon Senate race toss-upA third-party candidate has the potential to siphon votes from both the Democrat and Republican candidate running in Senate District 3. More than $1 million in just the last month has poured into two candidates’ campaigns for a southern… -
Farmer raises over $100k in bid for Oregon state senate seatSaginaw farmer Jack Tibbetts has raised over $100,000 in his bid to win the open Oregon senate seat representing east Lane/Linn counties in the state Legislature, and neither of his opponents have come close to that figure. Tibbetts' top… -
Lane, Linn County candidates compete for open Oregon Senate seatThe Oregon State Senate seat that represents eastern Lane County and most of Linn County is on the ballot this November. But District 6’s current senator, Republican Cedric Hayden, can’t run again after participating in a lengthy… -
Senate District 16 candidate Rachel Armitage answers our questionnaireRachel Armitage, running against Courtney Bangs and Melisa Finkle for the open state Senate District 16 seat, answers Banks Post's seven questions on Highway 6, state forests, wildfire funding and more. This is part of a series of Banks… -
Letter: Showing Up Matters in Senate District 16Campaign season brings plenty of promises. I prefer to look at what candidates have done when they’ve actually had the opportunity to serve. She was appointed to represent Senate District 16 in 2022. During her time in the Oregon Senate… -
Clatsop Co. Elections to livestream ballot activity, vote counting for midterm electionsCLATSOP COUNTY, Ore. — An Oregon county elections office says it will live stream its ballot processing activities for the November 3 midterm election, boosting transparency with how votes are counted. The Clatsop County Clerk and…
Related markets
All senate ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
24%Figures, 2+ pts
-132
Alabama's 3rd District margin of victory
38.6median
2454
Median 38.6Middle half 32.7 – 43.5
Alabama's 4th District margin of victory
59.3median
4272
Median 59.3Middle half 54.3 – 63.6
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
23.6median
737
Median 23.6Middle half 18.5 – 29
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
26.2median
1548
Median 26.2Middle half 20.6 – 31.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions