Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
2%chance
Install
Measles cases in 2026?
The odds
6,778median
4,00011,000
Median 6,778Middle half 6,160 – 7,842
How the odds have moved
Median: 7,299 on Oct 20, 6,778 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above 3000 | 99% | ▼ 1 | $1.01 | 80.2K | ||
| ✓ Above 4000 | 99% | ▼ 1 | $1.01 | 432.1K | ||
| Above 5000 | 98% | 96¢ | $1.02 | 100 | ||
| Above 6000 | 82% | ▼ 3 | 80¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | 293.0K |
| Above 7000 | 41% | ▼ 15 | 38¢ | 44¢ | $2.27 | 2.9K |
| Above 8000 | 22% | ▲ 1 | 21¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | 178.4K |
| Above 9000 | 14% | ▼ 1 | 12¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 474 |
| Above 10000 | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 168.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: measles
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Additional 178 cases of measles reported by US health authorities amid outbreakCenters for Disease Control and Prevention reported 4,588 cases across the country, more than double the tally in 2025 Federal health authorities reported an additional 178 cases of measles in the US this week, as the vaccine-preventable… -
Measles Surge Exposes Republicans’ Vulnerability“A growing measles outbreak coupled with health secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr’s vaccine scepticism has emerged as a political problem for Republicans as November’s midterm elections approach,” the Financial Times reports. “Next month, the… -
CDC denies approval for high volume measles test, ‘prioritizing emerging technologies’A letter signed by health officials in California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington, asks the CDC to reconsider California and Washington asked the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in May to validate a new way to test for… -
CDC sends disease detective to Pennsylvania to investigate measles outbreakCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. CDC sends… -
8 more die of measles-like symptomsEight more patients died with measles-like symptoms across the country in the 24 hours till 8:00am yesterday. Copyright: Any unauthorized use or reproduction of The Daily Star content for commercial purposes Tarique Rahman's Japan visit… -
Experts alarmed by ‘less transparent’ CDC as US measles deaths riseAgency declines to reveal in which state latest measles death occurred as it delays reporting other measles deaths The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) added a third measles death to its dashboard on Wednesday, but the… -
WI Measles Cases Tick UpwardWisconsin’s measles outbreak has reached 310 cases. Health officials reported 43 new cases over the last ten days. Most cases are in southwestern Wisconsin, with Lafayette County reporting 103 confirmed or probable infections. Northern… -
Kentucky’s measles outbreak nears 200 casesThe number of measles cases in Kentucky is nearing 200. As of Thursday, there were 194 confirmed cases of measles, according to the Kentucky Department for Public Health Measles Dashboard. One-hundred-ninety-two of the confirmed cases… -
Measles Update: October 23, 2026The latest CDC numbers show a 4.0% increase in measles cases from week-to-week, bringing the 2026 US total to 4588 confirmed cases. Ninety-six percent of cases are outbreak-associated. The increase is smaller than last week's 8.1% rise… -
Measles surge pushes US case count past 4,500Federal health officials have added 178 measles cases to the national count in the latest weekly update, a sign the outbreak-driven resurgence is still spreading across the country. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now lists… -
Measles: Death toll reaches 1,227 as 5 more children die in 24hrsSunday October 25, 2026 The health directorate recorded the deaths of five children with measles-like symptoms in the 24 hours preceding 8am today (25 October), taking Bangladesh's combined toll of confirmed and suspected measles-related… -
Florida could face its worst measles epidemic in nearly 50 yearsA new study warns that ending Florida's school measles vaccine mandate could trigger its worst epidemic in nearly 50 years. Measles was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000, yet Florida may already lack the protection that…
Related markets
All outbreaks ›Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
6,726high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 6,726.
- Reaches 4,500>99%
- Reaches 4,75098%
Already reached: ↑3.5k, ↑500, ↑1k, ↑2k, ↑3k, ↑4k
Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
4,811median
4,3005,000
Median 4,811Middle half 4,748 – 4,866
Plague pandemic in 2026?
2%chance
How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
3.45median
020
Median 3.45
Pandemic in 2026?
4%chance▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions