Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
2%chance
Install
How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
The odds
2.67median
020
Median 2.67
How the odds have moved
Median: 0.94 on Oct 20, 2.67 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above 0 | 90% | ▲ 2 | $1.11 | 3.5K | ||
| Above 1 | 69% | ▲ 1 | 65¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 1.6K |
| Above 2 | 58% | ▲ 3 | 53¢ | 74¢ | $1.35 | 1.3K |
| Above 3 | 46% | ▼ 18 | 19¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 237 |
| Above 5 | 16% | 8¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 81.00 | |
| Above 7 | 14% | ▼ 14 | 3¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 142 |
| Above 10 | 14% | ▼ 4 | 18¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 409 |
| Above 15 | 7% | ▼ 20 | 6¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 2.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: bird flu, H5N1
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'Shock' of first England farmer hit by bird flu this seasonCatherine Armstrong says the outbreak of bird flu is all her worst fears realised A farmer hit by England's first outbreak of avian flu this season has said the loss of 32,000 egg-laying birds is likely to cost her business more than… -
Infectious bird flu survived milk pasteurization in lab tests, study finds. Here's what to know.Updated on: June 14, 2024 / 2:59 PM EDT / CBS News A "small but detectable quantity" of infectious H5N1 bird flu virus was able to survive a common approach to pasteurizing milk, according to new research co-authored by scientists at the… -
Nearly 1 million chickens killed at egg farm as nation’s largest bird flu outbreak growsLosing nearly a million hens could cut egg supplies and drive prices higher Nearly 1 million chickens were killed at an Illinois farm after a bird flu outbreak became the nation’s largest active outbreak this week. The outbreak affected… -
Bird flu outbreak sparks fears for Christmas turkey supply as 32,000 birds culledChristmas dinner could come under pressure from a growing bird flu outbreak after tens of thousands of poultry were culled at a farm in Northumberland. Around 2,000 birds have already died following an outbreak of avian influenza at a… -
Bird Flu Outbreak: 32,000-Bird Free-Range Egg Farm Hit in Northumberland | Here’s What We Know So FarHighly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has been confirmed at a commercial free-range egg farm near Belford, Northumberland. The post Bird Flu Outbreak: 32,000-Bird Free-Range Egg Farm Hit in Northumberland | Here’s What We Know So Far… -
MDC encourages awareness of “bird flu” as fall migration beginsXplor reconnects kids to nature and helps them find adventure in their own backyard. Free to residents of Missouri. A monthly publication about conservation in Missouri. Started in 1938, the printed magazine is free to residents of… -
Fears grow over Christmas turkey shortage after bird flu outbreak leads to mass cullAround 30,000 of the birds will need to be culled following the outbreak in Northumberland(Image: Getty Images) Experts fear a spread of bird flu currently tearing through a UK farm and could leave Brits without a Christmas turkey this… -
Looking After Your Wellbeing During H5 Bird FluH5 bird flu is present in wild birds in Victoria. The risk to the general public remains low. Bird flu rarely spreads to humans. Many Victorians care deeply about wildlife and may feel upset when they see sick or dead birds or hear reports… -
Vandalur Zoo shuts for 2 days after H5N1 bird flu confirmed in water birdsChennai's Arignar Anna Zoological Park, popularly known as Vandalur Zoo, will remain closed to visitors on October 22 and 23 after the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, was detected in water birds at the facility… -
Yakima resident tests positive for bird flu, low risk to general public, YHD saysYAKIMA, Wash. — A person in Yakima County has tested positive for avian flu, otherwise known as bird flu, according to the Yakima Health District (YHD) and Washington State Department of Health (DOH). According to YHD, the person who has… -
Barron County reports second case of bird flu this weekWisconsin State Journal Javascript is required to use this website. A case of highly contagious bird flu has been found in a fourth captive flock in Wisconsin, this time in the northern part of the state. State officials have identified… -
Bird Flu Is Raging on a Mink Farm. It Could Spark a Human Pandemic, Experts Say, but Officials Won’t Act.The strain of bird flu that’s ripped through American barns for the last four years has killed two people who caught it from sick animals. But as far as anyone can tell, humans can’t spread it. The virus has remained a true “bird” flu…
Related markets
All outbreaks ›Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
6,425high with an even chance
Traders see an even chance of trading as high as 6,425.
- Reaches 4,500>99%
- Reaches 4,75098%
Already reached: ↑3.5k, ↑500, ↑1k, ↑2k, ↑3k, ↑4k
Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?
4,811median
4,3005,000
Median 4,811Middle half 4,749 – 4,867
Plague pandemic in 2026?
2%chance
Measles cases in 2026?
6,788median
4,00011,000
Median 6,788Middle half 6,163 – 7,786
Pandemic in 2026?
4%chance▲ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions