Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
Jun 10, 2027even chance by
- December 31, 202618%▼ 10
- January 31, 202733%▼ 1
- February 28, 202736%▲ 2
2 more
- June 30, 202753%▼ 1
- December 31, 202765%▲ 3
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Total space launches in October (October 2026)
The odds
11.7median
821
Median 11.7Middle half 11.2 – 12.3
How the odds have moved
Not enough history yet.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 9 | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 300 | ||
| Above 10 | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 908 | |
| Above 11 | 83% | 79¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 573 | |
| Above 12 | 33% | ▼ 1 | 29¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 2.2K |
| Above 13 | 7% | ▲ 2 | 3¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 1.5K |
| Above 14 | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 900 | |
| Above 15 | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 536 | |
| Above 16 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.0K | |
| Above 17 | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.2K | |
| Above 18 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 2.9K | ||
| Above 19 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 266 | ||
| Above 20 | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 505 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.