Jobs numbers in October 2026?
66Kmedian
-50K150K
Median 66KMiddle half 28K – 103K
Install
Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 31, 2026
The last odds before it closed
—
- At least 180,00099%▲ 3
- At least 185,00099%▲ 5
- At least 190,00093%▲ 4
- At least 195,00069%▲ 2
- At least 200,00030%▼ 4
- At least 205,00010%▼ 1
- At least 210,0008%▲ 5
- At least 215,0001%▼ 1
- At least 220,0001%
How the odds have moved
At least 180,000: 96% on Oct 30, 97% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 180,000 | 99% | ▲ 3 | $1.01 | 230 | ||
| At least 185,000 | 99% | ▲ 5 | $1.01 | 18.00 | ||
| At least 190,000 | 93% | ▲ 4 | $1.08 | 1.3K | ||
| At least 195,000 | 69% | ▲ 2 | $1.45 | 2.8K | ||
| At least 200,000 | 30% | ▼ 4 | $3.33 | 4.8K | ||
| At least 205,000 | 10% | ▼ 1 | $10.00 | 3.2K | ||
| At least 210,000 | 8% | ▲ 5 | $12.50 | 618 | ||
| At least 215,000 | 1% | ▼ 1 | $100.00 | 3.2K | ||
| At least 220,000 | 1% | $100.00 | 1.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›- The midterms controlled today, Friday we will be talking about the jobs report, says Jim CramerCNBC The midterms controlled today, Friday we will be talking about the jobs report, says Jim Cramer
- UBS eliminates roughly 200 London jobs – reportUBS Group has shed approximately 200 London-based staff in recent weeks, as it reaches the concluding stages of its Credit Suisse absorption, reported Bloomberg. A spokesperson for the bank declined to comment on the figures. To mitigate…
- Gold News: Lower Yields Support Bullion as U.S. Jobs Report ApproachesThe council’s central-bank analysis puts those purchases in perspective. Reported net buying accounted for 120 tonnes of the 321-tonne estimate. About 63% of quarterly official-sector demand came from estimated unreported activity. Country…
- Dollar-yen absorbs U.S. midterm elections, settles into rangebound trading around 158; focus shifts to October U.S. jobs reportDollar-yen is expected to trade in a rangebound fashion centered on the 158 level in Tokyo on the morning of the 5th. The previous day's U.S. midterm elections saw the pair fall to 157.38 in Tokyo trading as the Democratic Party's gains…
- Friday’s jobs report looms as Fed weighs December move on interest ratesScotsman Guide Friday’s jobs report looms as Fed weighs December move on interest rates During the fall of 2025, fears that lackluster job creation could turn negative as President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff policies, immigration…
- U.S. private sector employment tops consensus in October: ADP jobs reportTradingView U.S. private sector employment tops consensus in October: ADP jobs report U.S. private sector employment increased by +86K in October, stronger than the +70K consensus and only slightly lower than the 90K jobs added in…
- Wall Street Braces for Jobs Report and Musk Showcase on a Single FridayThe S&P 500's fate on Friday, Nov. 6, may hinge on two events that have nothing to do with each other: a government payrolls release at 8:30 a.m. ET and a billionaire's fireside chat in the afternoon. The Labor Department's Bureau of Labor…
- Gold Price Today: $4,135 Thursday Before Friday’s 6 November Jobs Report as the Dollar Holds Near a One-Month Low, Bull $4,225, Bear $4,000Our Wednesday gold page had December futures at $4,027.30 early in the session and put the upper reference level at $4,115. Gold went through it within a day. Spot added another $136 during the US session on Wednesday, and Asian buyers…
- Strong October jobs report could alter Fed's planned rate hikes in December and 2027.The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates in December and again in 2027, but the upcoming October jobs report could change this outlook. A stronger-than-expected jobs report would allow the Fed to focus more confidently on…
- Gordon Brothers in talks to protect Poundland stores and jobs – reportInvestment company Gordon Brothers has informed the UK Government that it is engaged in discussions to preserve Poundland outlets and employment as the discount chain moves closer to administration, reported Sky News. Poundland’s directors…
- Gold price today: One analyst sees a slide to $3,500, two are watching friday's jobs reportGold (XAU/USD) edges higher and recovers above the $4,000 mark at the time of writing on Wednesday after clinching an uncomfortable milestone: the drop from its final top to this year's breakdown now measures 17.5% - exactly what Gold fell…
- Gold Price Today: Above $4,000 Wednesday as Democrats Win Congress and the Dollar Hits a One-Month Low – Jobs Report 6 November, Bull $4,115, Bear $3,920Our Tuesday gold page had gold near $3,921 with the rebound stalled below $3,950. It said gold needed a weak jobs report on Friday to get back above $4,000. It got there two days early, on the election result instead. Stocks went the other…
Related markets
All jobs ›Unemployment in October (Oct 2026)
4.14%median
3.6%5.1%
Median 4.14%Middle half 4.08% – 4.2%
Maine lobster landings in 2026
73.6median
5095
Median 73.6Middle half 68.7 – 78.3
Visitors to Florida in 2026
141.6median
134150
Median 141.6Middle half 140.3 – 143
Unemployment in November (Nov 2026)
4.17%median
3.6%5.1%
Median 4.17%Middle half 4.07% – 4.26%
Port of Savannah container volume in 2026
5.80median
5.206.20
Median 5.80Middle half 5.66 – 5.91
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions