Hurricane Vance category?
4%Category 4 or above
36
Install
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
The odds
3%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 5% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 174.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: hurricane, tropical storm, Hawaii
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Tropical Storm Vance could intensify into a major hurricane, while Champi threatens Taiwan and JapanTropical Storm Vance is expected to strengthen into the 13th hurricane in the Pacific Basin this season as it approaches Mexico next week. Vance could intensify into a major hurricane, which would be the basin's 10th Category 3 or stronger… -
Tropical Storm Vance forms in the Pacific as hurricane season continuesWatch Tropical Storm Vance forms in the Pacific as hurricane season continues - FWX FOX One FWX · Aired Today · 1m 1s Tropical Storm Vance formed in the Pacific, marking the first V-named storm in the eastern Pacific since 2018. The system… -
Los Cabos Will Keep Eye On Tropical Storm Vance As Hurricane Season Begins To Wind DownIf you are planning a trip to Los Cabos as the winter approaches, you might have thought you were completely in the clear when it comes to tropical weather. Traditionally, late October marks the point where the Pacific hurricane season… -
Tropical Storm Vance forms in eastern Pacific as hurricane season reaches rare milestone not seen since 2018Tropical Storm Vance formed in the Pacific, marking the first V-named storm in the eastern Pacific since 2018. The system has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and a central pressure of 1,003 mb. The active Pacific continues to churn out… - Tropical Storm Vance Expected To Become Major Hurricane Near Mexico700WLW Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to intensify rapidly and could become a major hurricane as it approaches the southwestern coast of Mexico next week. As of Thursday (October 22), Vance was located about 500 miles south of Acapulco…
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Tropical Storm Vance has formed in the Pacific OceanABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos Tropical Storm Vance has formed in the Pacific Ocean MIAMI -- Tropical Storm Vance formed Wednesday in the Pacific Ocean, the National Hurricane Center said. The center of the cyclone was at… -
Tropical Storm Vance forms near Mexico. Will it affect Texas?From there, some weather models show that moisture from Vance could move into parts of South Texas, bringing enhanced rain chances to places like the Rio Grande Valley, San Antonio, and Corpus Christi. Exactly when could that happen?… -
Tropical Storm Vance forms in eastern Pacific, to approach southwest Mexico Coast as a major hurricaneFollowing Polo, Simon, Rachel and Trudy, forecasters are tracking a new storm that could evolve into a major hurricane as it tracks toward Mexico. Published Oct 19, 2026 1:28 PM EDT | Updated Oct 21, 2026 5:16 PM EDT Satellite imagery from… -
Tropical Storm Vance forms in the Pacific OceanMIAMI (TNND) — Tropical Storm Vance formed in the eastern Pacific on Wednesday and was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday while remaining far from land, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Vance was centered… -
Storm Josephine spins out in Atlantic, Tropical Storm Vance heads to MexicoThe forecast track of Subtropical Storm Josephine shows it heading out into the North Atlantic Ocean as an extratropical storm over the next few days. Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and approach the west… -
'Rosal' weakens further, likely to be downgraded to tropical storm by Saturday | ABS-CBN News'Rosal' weakens further, likely to be downgraded to tropical storm by Saturday ABS-CBN 'Rosal' weakens further, likely to be downgraded to tropical storm by Saturday Your go-to source for the latest news, entertainment highlights… -
RivCo Officials Announce Relief For CalFresh Households Impacted By Tropical Storm RachelRIVERSIDE, CA — Riverside County residents receiving CalFresh benefits who lost food because of Tropical Storm Rachel have until Oct. 30 to report their losses and request replacement benefits, county officials announced on Thursday. The…
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All hurricanes & storms ›How many Eastern Pacific named storms will there be this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
21.0median
1728
Median 21.0Middle half 20 – 22.1
How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? (Eastern Pacific in 2026)
7.65median
59
Median 7.65Middle half 7.31 – 7.99
Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026?
47%Above 10
835
How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
13%Above 1
08
Hurricane Hanna category?
1%Category 1 or above
06
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions