Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
94%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party94%▲ 1
- Republican Party6%▼ 1
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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the 2028 election?
The odds
243.5median
180260
Median 243.5Middle half 227.5 – 251.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 228.6 on Oct 31, 243.5 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 185 | 98% | 95¢ | $1.03 | |||
| At least 190 | 98% | ▲ 1 | 95¢ | $1.03 | ||
| At least 195 | 97% | ▲ 1 | 94¢ | $1.03 | ||
| At least 200 | 97% | ▲ 1 | 94¢ | $1.03 | ||
| At least 205 | 97% | ▲ 1 | 93¢ | $1.04 | ||
| At least 210 | 94% | ▲ 5 | 89¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | |
| At least 215 | 90% | ▲ 8 | 85¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | |
| At least 218 | 86% | ▲ 10 | 81¢ | 90¢ | $1.11 | 15.00 |
| At least 220 | 82% | ▲ 13 | 77¢ | 86¢ | $1.16 | 15.00 |
| At least 225 | 78% | ▲ 16 | 73¢ | 83¢ | $1.20 | |
| At least 230 | 72% | ▲ 17 | 67¢ | 77¢ | $1.30 | |
| At least 235 | 66% | ▲ 16 | 61¢ | 70¢ | $1.43 | 416 |
| At least 240 | 61% | ▲ 21 | 56¢ | 65¢ | $1.54 | 287 |
| At least 245 | 46% | ▲ 17 | 41¢ | 50¢ | $2.00 | 493 |
| At least 250 | 31% | ▲ 12 | 26¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 510 |
| At least 255 | 16% | ▲ 6 | 11¢ | 20¢ | $5.00 | 418 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House
Search ›- How House Democrats' 'deterrence message' on Trump jobs could backfireFormer DOJ official Abhi Kambli says Democrats’ calls to hold Trump staffers accountable could make future investigations look punitive rather than for legislative functions, potentially chilling congressional oversight. Sen. Elissa…
- House Democrats defend Rep. Ilhan Omar amid federal investigationFox News' Madeleine Rivera reports on House Democrats calling the raid on Rep. Ilhan Omar's home politically motivated. House Democrats defend Rep. Ilhan Omar amid federal investigation Fox News' Madeleine Rivera reports on House Democrats…
- Texas House Democrats say they'll appeal $450,000+ fines for summer quorum breakUpdated on: January 21, 2026 / 3:58 AM CST / CBS Texas Several Texas House Democrats have less than a month to appeal fines of over $9,000 each for leaving the state for two weeks over the summer to block a controversial redistricting…
- Pete Hegseth’s political future could be on the line if Democrats win the HouseDefense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s political future could be on the line if Democrats win the House majority in next week’s midterm elections. A Democrat win of the House could breathe new life into an ongoing effort to impeach Hegseth…
- Democrats could win up to 240 House seats on Tuesday, Cook Political Report saysDemocrats are now favored in enough House races to win the majority, according to the nonpartisan election prognosticator Cook Political Report, and could end up with up to 240 seats, their largest majority since 2009. Cook on Friday moved…
- Democrats believe an old Trump tactic will help them win back the HouseBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Trump won 2024 with a…
- 2026 U.S. House Election ResultsThe handful of House members who flipped the toughest seats in 2024 all face challenging races again this year. These are districts that changed party control in the last election excluding those that redistricted prior to the 2024 and…
- Exclusive / Top House Democrat Clyburn stumping for unity around El-SayedThe South Carolina Democrat is heading to Michigan this weekend for a rally in support of Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed. Democrats have a closer in Michigan’s Senate race: South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn. He’s heading to Michigan this…
- Vice President JD Vance explains what will happen if Democrats win the House and SenateVice President JD Vance warns what could happen if Democrats take control of the House and Senate and makes a final pitch to voters ahead of Election Day on ‘Jesse Watters Primetime.’ ... Vice President JD Vance explains what will happen…
- Bute House protested by environmental campaignersClimate groups gathered outside Bute House in Edinburgh Climate groups gathered outside Bute House in Edinburgh to protest against the Scottish government's decision to give the go-ahead for a new, gas-fired, power station at Peterhead in…
- Top House Democrats demand Trump preserve conversations with GrokReps. Jamie Raskin and Robert Garcia are signaling their interest in investigating the White House's use of AI chatbots. Elon Musk and President Donald Trump take part in a press conference in the Oval Office at the White House, on May 30…
- American Psychological Association rejects House report on antisemitismThe president and CEO of the American Psychological Association rejected the findings of a House report on Jew-hatred in the association, telling colleagues on Thursday that the APA has “held listening sessions” with Jewish psychologists…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions