US recession by end of 2026?
8%chance▼ 1
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France credit rating downgrade in 2026?
The odds
98%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 72% on Oct 15, 98% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98% | 30¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 703 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: France
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France braces for another weekend of protestsCBS News Los Angeles Weekend 8am CBS News Miami This Morning 10am CBS News New York Saturday 11am Hometown High Q Classics CBS News Texas 9am -
Congressman breaks down U.S. vs. France government spendingCongressman Ro Khanna (D-CA) breaks down the differences between U.S. and French government spending, arguing that investments in education, healthcare and technology are key to economic growth. Congressman breaks down U.S. vs. France… -
BBC Audio | Newshour | Hundreds of protesters arrested in FranceFor a second week running, France has taken to the streets in protest about the cost of living. Most marches were peaceful but nearly one thousand people have been arrested and two have been seriously ... Hundreds of protesters arrested in… -
Forget the riots — France’s downfall will come from its completely broken financesThe English say all bad ideas come from France, but that is unfair to the Germans. The scenes of riot and destruction from France may arise from our Gallic friends’ particular circumstances and peculiar habits, but they reflect Europe’s… -
BBC Audio | Weekend | Clashes erupt across several cities in FranceFrench police have arrested nearly a thousand people during another day of mass protests over the cost of living that saw clashes in many cities. Clashes erupt across several cities in France Available for 29 days French police have… -
Miranda Devine likens France riots to 2020 'Summer of Love'Fox News Miranda Devine likens France riots to 2020 'Summer of Love' Fox News contributor Miranda Devine shares her disdain for how far protests in Europe have gone, comparing them to the 2020 'Summer of Love' in America, on 'My View with… -
England thrash France to keep alive World Cup hopesHerbie Farnworth scored England's first World Cup hat-trick since Tommy Makinson against Papua New Guinea in 2022 Tries: Farnworth 3, Young 3, Lewis 2, Ashton, Williams, Radley, Litten, Welsby, Brimson Goals: Savala 13 After losing their… -
England crush France 82-0 to stay in World Cup contentionEngland thrash France 82-0 in Perth to keep their World Cup hopes alive but they still need to beat Papua New Guinea on Friday and require Tonga to defeat Samoa next Sunday to reach the semi-finals. MATCH REPORT: England thrash France to… -
Violence flares in Paris after massive, largely peaceful protests across FranceHundreds of thousands of demonstrators marched in France on Saturday, with largely peaceful rallies giving way to clashes in Paris and Marseille as night fell despite a huge security operation aimed at preventing a repeat of last week's… -
France's luxury stores board up windows ahead of fresh protestsLuxury boutiques in France boarded up their normally glitzy windows and added guards ahead of fresh protests on Saturday, with some planning to stay closed after rioters looted shops across the country last weekend. France draws large… -
France sees another weekend of mass protests, with nearly 1,000 detainedHundreds of thousands of people protested across France Saturday, according to the country’s Interior Ministry, in what were largely peaceful demonstrations. Around 110,000 of the over 410,000 protesters were in Paris, the ministry said… -
France on edge: nearly 800 protests as police clash with demonstratorsHundreds of thousands of demonstrators stormed streets across France Saturday, resuming a fresh wave of far-left driven protests that this time were met by a beefed-up security presence. Government officials estimate 410,000 protestors…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions