Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?

Kalshi Economy › Housing Closes Dec 31 · $4 today · $1.8K traded · $356 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

4%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 6% on Oct 20, 4% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	4%		2¢	6¢	$16.67	45.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Freddie Mac Y

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All housing ›

Economy › Housing

30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2026

7.57%median

5.75%9.25%

Median 7.57%Middle half 7.21% – 7.68%

Economy › Housing

30-year mortgage rate at the end of 2027

63%Above 6.50%

5.75%6.75%

Economy › Housing

US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report (Oct 28, 2026)

9.08%median

-12%12%

Median 9.08%

Economy › Housing

Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

46%↑ 7.50%

Reaches 7.5%46%

Falls to 6.5%33%
Falls to 6.25%31%

Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%

Economy › Housing

US building permits for October (October 2026)

1.38median

1.201.65

Median 1.38Middle half 1.33 – 1.43

Economy › Housing

Will Illinois home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?

90%chance

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFreddie Mac

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:55 AM ET

Traded$1.8K (45,050 contracts)

Today$4

At stake$356

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If any Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) release, between Issuance and Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average is below 5.75%, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

iShares U.S. Home ConstructionITB · moves with it90.57−0.73%
State Street SPDR S&P HomebuildXHB · moves with it98.38−0.83%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.