Fed Decision in October?
95%No change
- No change95%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase4%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
How many government employees will Trump cut? (2026)
The odds
11%More than 100,000
50,000400,000
How the odds have moved
More than 100,000: 11% on Oct 20, 11% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| More than 100,000 | 11% | 8¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 7.4K | |
| More than 150,000 | 8% | 4¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 7.6K | |
| More than 200,000 | 7% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.00 | 859 | |
| More than 250,000 | 7% | 6¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 2.3K | |
| More than 300,000 | 5% | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 625 | |
| More than 350,000 | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 1.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Trump
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President Trump, first lady Melania Trump cast early voting ballotsPresident Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump deliver remarks after casting their early voting ballots in West Palm Beach, Fla. President Trump, first lady Melania Trump cast early voting ballots President Donald Trump and first lady… -
President Trump and first lady Melania Trump vote early in West Palm BeachA hoarse-sounding President Trump and first lady Melania Trump voted early in West Palm Beach on Saturday – as Trump vowed to keep up the vigorous campaign schedule A hoarse-sounding President Trump cast his ballot alongside first lady… -
Tracking Trump: Trump rolls back Canada tariffs; Melania Trump’s peace deal; Hegseth bans insider trading; and moreBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Trump rolled back some… -
Small businesses struggling with inflation amid Trump tariffs ahead of midtermsWBZ News Weekend 6pm CBS News Chicago Saturday 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6pm KDKA News Saturday 6pm Your Stories From Your Community Reporters CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
Obama Mocks Trump’s White House RenovationsOct 24, 2026 at 07:24 PM EDT Former President Barack Obama took several shots at President Donald Trump's focus on White House renovations during a rally in Ohio on Saturday, joking that Trump "should be on HGTV" and ridiculing reports of… -
Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout?Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout? Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' -
US oil company holds key to Trump's Greenland drilling ambitionsGreenland Energy CEO Robert Price says the United States needs to look to "friendly jurisdictions" to become independent from foreign supplies of oil. His company is in the permitting process and plans to drill wells in Greenland in 2027… -
Trump casts early in-person ballot | CNN PoliticsPresident Donald Trump cast an early ballot at a polling station in South Florida on Saturday. Despite the president's previous attacks on various voting methods such as mail-in voting and early voting, Trump has urged Republican voters to… -
Obama slams Trump on campaign trail in OhioCBS News Bay Area Evening Edition Weekend 5pm CBS News Detroit Weekend 6pm CBS News New York CBS News Philadelphia 7:30pm KDKA News at 7 CBS13 News Weekend 5pm CBS News Texas Saturday 5pm -
Trump Renews Talks of Pardoning White House StaffOct 24, 2026 at 06:55 PM EDT President Donald Trump left the door open to pardons for White House staff and administration officials, telling reporters on Saturday that he would be "allowed" to grant them despite insisting he has not given… -
Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but ‘replacing’ them with other productsThe U.S. will issue tariff exemptions on several categories of Canadian imports, Sen. Susan Collins announced Friday. Trump dropping some Canada tariffs but âreplacingâ them with other products -
Trump: Tariffs have made us richPresident Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United States at a midterm campaign rally in Fort Myers, Fla. Trump: Tariffs have made us rich President Donald Trump discusses the impact of his tariffs on the United…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 3
- No change20%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
75%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike75%▲ 1
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%▼ 1
- Hike–Hike–Pause2%▲ 2
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Hike2%▼ 1
- Other1%▼ 1
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
77%chance▲ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.