Fed Decision in October?
95%No change
- No change95%▲ 2
- 25 bps increase4%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Who will dissent at the October Fed meeting? (October 2026 FOMC)
The odds
74%Beth Hammack
- Beth Hammack74%▲ 1
- Lorie Logan43%▼ 5
- Neel Kashkari36%▼ 8
- Christopher Waller4%▼ 3
- Michelle Bowman4%▼ 1
- Michael Barr4%▼ 1
- Kevin Warsh3%▲ 1
- Lisa Cook2%
- Philip Jefferson2%
- Jerome Powell1%
- John Williams1%
How the odds have moved
Beth Hammack: 80% on Oct 20, 74% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beth Hammack | 74% | ▲ 1 | 64¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 10.6K |
| Lorie Logan | 43% | ▼ 5 | 62¢ | $1.61 | 3.7K | |
| Neel Kashkari | 36% | ▼ 8 | 17¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 5.1K |
| Christopher Waller | 4% | ▼ 3 | 3¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 516 |
| Michelle Bowman | 4% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | $14.29 | 617 | |
| Michael Barr | 4% | ▼ 1 | 7¢ | $14.29 | 610 | |
| Kevin Warsh | 3% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | $20.00 | 410 | |
| Lisa Cook | 2% | 4¢ | $25.00 | 410 | ||
| Philip Jefferson | 2% | 3¢ | $33.33 | 2.3K | ||
| Jerome Powell | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 1.5K | ||
| John Williams | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 3.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›- September Jobs Data Set to Influence Federal Reserve’s Rate Strategy as Futures ClimbU.S. stock futures advanced during Friday’s pre-market session as market participants prepared for employment figures that may influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance on borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures increased 0.4%, while…
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Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekThey all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm elections that will determine the future makeup of Congress as the U.S. economy grapples with constantly shifting global trade conflicts and a global oil shortage brought on by the U.S… -
Fed expected to hold rates steady days ahead of U.S. midtermsThe U.S. Federal Reserve appears set to hold interest rates steady at its meeting next week, analysts say, despite stubbornly high inflation and with markets pricing in at least one rate hike before year-end. - US inflation expectations hit May high ahead of FedThe University of Michigan reported on October 23 that US household inflation expectations rose in October, with year-ahead forecasts reaching 4.7% and long-run forecasts climbing to 3.5%. The data marks the second consecutive monthly…
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Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in… -
The Federal Reserve At A Time Of UncertaintyEconomic uncertainty has increased on several fronts. That has made it even more difficult than before for the Fed to forecast the path of inflation and employment. Read more here... - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been consistently clear… -
Fed Decision, Microsoft, Alphabet Earnings Highlight Blockbuster WeekGet ahead of the market by subscribing to Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Week Ahead, a preview of key events scheduled for the coming week. The newsletter keeps you informed of the biggest stories set to make headlines, including upcoming… -
Pine Bluff NAACP asks Federal Reserve for community meeting on Simmons Bank branch closingThe Pine Bluff Branch NAACP recently filed a written request with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asking the federal regulator to consult with community leaders and hold a public meeting before Simmons Bank closes its branch at 1704… -
Bitcoin Price Crash Below $80K: Liquidations, ETF Outflows and Fed UncertaintyBitcoin fell below $80,000 on Saturday, October 24, as forced liquidations and fund withdrawals increased selling pressure. The cryptocurrency dropped 1.91% over 24 hours to $79,994.97 during the initial decline. Meanwhile, upcoming… -
Trump Criticizes Warsh as Fed Rate Hikes Threaten StocksPresident Donald Trump has intensified criticism of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy after its September rate increase, raising concerns about borrowing costs and the outlook for U.S. stocks. The dispute centers on Fed Chair Kevin… -
Fed’s Bowman Calls for Clearer Accountability in Bank Supervision After SVB LessonsThe Ritz Herald Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman said Oct. 14 in Bangkok that bank supervision must modernize around timely action, clear decision-making authority and a tighter focus on material risks, drawing… -
Gold Falls to Three-Month Low, Oil Prices Fuel Fed Rate ConcernsHome » Economy » Gold Falls to Three-Month Low, Oil Prices Fuel Fed Rate Concerns Casablanca – Gold prices stayed below $4,000 an ounce on Saturday after hitting their lowest level in three months on Friday. Rising oil prices have raised…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▲ 3
- No change20%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
75%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike75%▼ 1
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%▼ 1
- Hike–Hike–Pause2%▲ 2
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Hike2%▼ 1
- Other1%▼ 1
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
77%chance▲ 3
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.