October 2026 Fed Combo · Rate and Dissents

Kalshi Economy › The Fed Closes Oct 28 · $519 today · $7.1K traded · $3.4K at stake · prices read 46 min ago

The odds

75%Rate: No change, Dissents: >0

Rate: No change, Dissents: >075%▲ 1
Rate: No change, Dissents: 013%▼ 2
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >09%▲ 4
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 02%▼ 3
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 01%
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >01%

How the odds have moved

Rate: No change, Dissents: >0: 75% on Oct 20, 75% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Rate: No change, Dissents: >0	75%	▲ 1	72¢	77¢	$1.30	7.7K
Rate: No change, Dissents: 0	13%	▼ 2	12¢	14¢	$7.14	6.2K
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0	9%	▲ 4	8¢	9¢	$11.11	5.6K
Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0	2%	▼ 3		4¢	$25.00	5.8K
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0	1%			1¢	$100.00	9.00
Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0	1%			1¢	$100.00	8.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC

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Could Donald Trump Save the Federal Reserve?The Epoch Times · 15 h agoSo who is Warsh? As an undergraduate at Stanford, he worked as a research assistant to Milton Friedman, and he has retained his teacher’s skepticism toward Federal Reserve overreach and intervention in financial markets. Friedman famously…
Concept 31: The Federal Reserve StructureGeorgia Public Broadcasting · 25 h agoThe Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. It oversees the nation’s money supply (through monetary policy), processes payments, and supervises and regulates banks. The U.S. Congress created the Federal Reserve in 1913 in…
Gold edges higher on softer oil; Fed rate outlook in focusCNBC · 28 h agoGold prices edged higher on Monday as softer oil prices offered support, while investors assessed the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year and looked for fresh signals on the U.S. central bank's policy…
Laurene Powell Jobs Invested $250 Million in David Ellison’s SkydanceVariety · 14 h agoBillionaire and philanthropist Laurene Powell Jobs paid $250 million to acquire a stake in Skydance, the David Ellison-led company formed by the merger of Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery. Powell Jobs, founder and president of…
The Federal Reserve: What Has Already Been Priced In?Medium · 43 h agoOne of the recurring themes on Tech Trend Investments is the importance of understanding the relationship between monetary policy and financial markets. During the episode, Lizabeth and Joseph discussed how investors begin positioning…
End of an Era: The Dallas Mavericks have waived Dwight PowellYahoo Sports · 21 h agoThe Dallas Mavericks waived veteran forward/center Dwight Powell on Monday. The all-time glue guy ends his 12-year run with the team as by far the most tenured player on the roster in a move that signals the end of an era for the Mavericks…
Dallas Mavericks waive veteran big man Dwight PowellYahoo Sports · 25 h agoThe Dallas Mavericks have made a somewhat significant move after the preseason. The Dallas Mavericks have waived John Poulakidas and Seth Lundy as the organization finalizes its roster ahead of the ... - Dallas Mavericks waive veteran big…
Richmond Fed Employees Receive Prestigious Taylor Award@richmondfed · 20 h agoAs one of 12 regional Reserve Banks in the Federal Reserve System, we work for Americans — for you — to promote a sound financial system and a healthy economy. We conduct and publish economic research to inform monetary policy and public…
Mexican Peso finds relief in Fed pause bets, but carry risks lingerFXStreet · 13 h agoThe Mexican Peso (MXN) appreciates against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday amid speculation that the interest rate differential between Mexico and the US will remain unchanged, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) projected to hold rates steady at…
Will the Fed Raise Rates This Month? Here's What Markets Say.The Motley Fool · 19 h agoThe Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report last week, showing that inflation was significantly higher than expected in September. That inflation data suggests that the Federal Reserve will…
What if the bond market has outgrown the Fed?American Banker · 18 h agoThe Federal Reserve is changing. In some ways, the change is intentional. The new chair, Kevin Warsh, has made change a point of his administration of the central bank. Now that he's settling in, he said in a speech at a conference in…
Cook Case Tests The Limits Of Fed IndependenceZeroHedge · 17 h agoAuthored by Alexander W. Salter via The Daily Economy, President Trump has renewed his effort to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board. Whether he has a legitimate reason to fire her is another matter. The White House announced a…

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All the fed ›

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in October?

85%No change

No change85%▼ 2
25 bps increase14%▲ 3
25 bps decrease<1%

2 more

50+ bps increase<1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in December?

77%25 bps increase

25 bps increase77%▲ 1
No change19%
50+ bps increase3%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease<1%

Economy › The Fed

Fed Decision in January?

64%No change

No change64%▲ 2
25 bps increase33%▼ 1
50+ bps increase1%

2 more

25 bps decrease1%
50+ bps decrease1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

97%0 (0 bps)

0 (0 bps)97%
1 (25 bps)1%
2 (50 bps)<1%

10 more

4 (100 bps)<1%
3 (75 bps)<1%
5 (125 bps)<1%
6 (150 bps)<1%
7 (175 bps)<1%
8 (200 bps)<1%
9 (225 bps)<1%
10 (250 bps)<1%
11 (275 bps)<1%
12+ (300+ bps)<1%

Economy › The Fed

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

68%2 (50 bps)

2 (50 bps)68%▲ 1
1 (25 bps)20%
3 (75 bps)10%

2 more

4 (100 bps)1%
5+ (125+ bps)<1%

Economy › The Fed

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

81%chance▲ 2

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFederal Reserve Board of Governors

Trading closesOct 28, 2026 1:55 PM ET

Traded$7.1K (25,282 contracts)

Today$519

This week$7.1K

At stake$3.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If ALL of the following occur for Oct 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: No change, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

5Y Yield^FVX · moves with it4.929+0.61%
S&P 500^GSPC · moves with it7,690.73+0.41%
3M T-Bill^IRX · moves with it4.075+0.12%
^TNX^TNX · moves with it
IEFIEF · moves with it
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury BondSHY · moves with it81.31−0.06%
SPYSPY · moves with it766.48+0.42%
TLTTLT · moves with it79.46−0.74%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.