Will the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix take place?
56%chance
Install
Will an F1 Grand Prix race take place in Abu Dhabi before December 7, 2026?
The odds
47%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 38% on Oct 20, 47% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 21, 7 PM ET48% → 60%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 47% | ▼ 1 | 46¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 23.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Polymarket
- Will an F1 Grand Prix race take place in Abu Dhabi before December 7, 2026?ChanceKalshi 47%Polymarket 56%9 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: Formula 1, Grand Prix, F1 Grand Prix
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