Midterms: which party wins independents? (Nov 3, 2026)
85%Democratic party
- Democratic party85%▲ 1
- Republican party14%▼ 3
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Midterms: which party wins young men? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
84%Democratic party
- Democratic party84%
- Republican party16%
How the odds have moved
Democratic party: 85% on Oct 20, 84% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 84% | 81¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | 1.0K | |
| Republican party | 16% | 13¢ | 19¢ | $5.26 | 4.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms
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Economic struggles motivate midterm votersCBS News Bay Area Morning Edition Weekend 7am CBS News Chicago Saturday at 9am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 7am CBS News Miami This Morning 10am CBS News New York Saturday 10am KDKA News This Morning Saturday… -
Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout?Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout? Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' -
Key politics at play in the 2026 midtermsCBS News Los Angeles Weekend 8am CBS News Miami This Morning 10am CBS News New York Saturday 11am Hometown High Q Classics CBS News Texas 9am -
US midterms: The rise of AI election ads in US midterms campaignResearchers say AI ads are being used more than ever in the US midterms campaign ahead of the elections in November. Some of the ads are being funded by outside political groups but they have also come directly from candidates in some key… -
Iowa’s cancer problem is scrambling the midtermsAs the debate season kicked off in Iowa’s heated gubernatorial race, one question seemed to animate and, in some ways, unify the candidates. “What are the immediate and specific steps that you would take to combat Iowa’s cancer crisis?”… -
Early voting begins in New Jersey for 2026 midterm electionsCBS News Philadelphia is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KYW-TV and channel 3, CBS News Philadelphia offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Early… -
GOP, Dems take on Georgia as midterms round cornerFormer Biden administration official Gevin Reynolds and Republican strategist Brian Robinson analyze the massive early voting turnout in Georgia as political stars head to the swing state. GOP, Dems take on Georgia as midterms round corner… -
Dem infighting erupts over which candidates to fund in midterms homestretchDemocrats are squabbling over where to prioritize their limited cash across an expanded congressional battle map that some fear is distracting from critical governor’s races. Democrats are squabbling over spending for Senate candidates… -
Trump Tests Midterm Pull in Georgia With Second Rally in Eight DaysOct 24, 2026 at 04:01 PM EDT President Donald Trump returns to Georgia on Saturday for his second rally in the battleground state in eight days, as Republicans look to his political influence for a boost in two closely watched statewide… -
Who Will Win the Midterms? What Polls Show 10 Days OutOct 24, 2026 at 05:00 AM EDT Ten days before the midterm elections, the battle for Congress is coming into focus, with Democrats favored to take the House but facing a more competitive fight for the Senate. Democrats have a 95 percent… -
This decade has been missing its big-impact midtermNew speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., holds the gavel during the opening session of the 116th Congress at the Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2019. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images hide caption… -
Russia steps up election influence efforts in final stretch of midtermsA pedestrian looks at his smartphone on an embankment with the Kremlin in the background in central Moscow on Oct. 8, 2026. Researchers who track online influence operations say Kremlin-backed groups are renewing tactics they've used to…
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All elections ›Midterms: which party wins Latino men? (Nov 3, 2026)
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Midterms: which party wins older women? (Nov 3, 2026)
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.