Midterms: which party wins independents? (Nov 3, 2026)
84%Democratic party
- Democratic party84%▼ 1
- Republican party16%▲ 2
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Midterms: which party wins white women? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
73%Democratic party
- Democratic party73%▼ 1
- Republican party27%▲ 3
How the odds have moved
Democratic party: 74% on Oct 20, 73% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 73% | ▼ 1 | 73¢ | 75¢ | $1.33 | 998 |
| Republican party | 27% | ▲ 3 | 25¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | 1.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Midterms
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2026 Midterm Elections: Trump, Obama Rally MichiganPresident Donald Trump is set to campaign in Michigan as Democrats deploy Barack Obama and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez while a Justice Department lawsuit threatens to complicate the closely watched Alaska Senate race. President Donald Trump… -
Obama attacks Trump during campaign ahead of US midtermsFormer US President Barack Obama spoke to crowds in Ohio while campaigning for the Democrats on Saturday. Read more about Obama campaigning for the Democrats ahead of the midterm elections. -
Economic woes transform the Midwest into a massive midterms battlegroundDemocrats could be poised for a revival in the heartland, as furor over high costs and doubt about President Donald Trump’s willingness to change the nation’s trajectory threaten to loosen the GOP’s grip on working-class voters. A decade… -
These are the midterm deciders: They voted for Trump and now disapprove of himBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. They’re a small but… -
‘Brilliant James’ helped return Trump to the White House. Can he conquer the midterms?James Blair’s data-driven approach delivered victory in 2024 but president’s unpopularity and idiosyncratic style do not bode well this time They are both young, bald and fathers of four. They are also the brains behind Donald Trump. But… -
Catholic Charities helps Minnesota's unhoused vote ahead of midtermsOctober 24, 2026 / 6:49 PM CDT / CBS Minnesota More than 400,000 Minnesotans have already voted in this midterm election, according to the Secretary of State's office, a big increase from 2022, when around 280,000 were reported during that… -
Pinching pennies, casting ballots: a midterms dispatch from the MidwestThe Midwest used to be known as an affordable place to live. Lately, though, many people there are having a hard time making ends meet. In this episode of The Sunday Story, Holly Edgell and Daniel Wheaton from NPR’s Midwest Newsroom bring… -
What early voting trends and predictions for midterm election in Texas show so farOctober 25, 2026 / 6:00 AM CDT / CBS Texas As many as 10 million people in Texas may vote in this year's midterm election, according to the organization VoteHub, which works with CBS News' Data Desk. That's close to 90% of the nearly 11.4… -
White House takes new actions ahead of midterm electionsNBC News Catastrophic flooding prompts rescues Good News: Unlikely friendship leads to trip of a lifetime White House takes new actions ahead of midterm elections All-out fight for critical battleground states ramps up Inside the battle… -
The momentum is with Republicans ahead of midterms, NRCC chairman saysFox News The momentum is with Republicans ahead of midterms, NRCC chairman says NRCC chairman Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., discusses how redistricting is impacting the midterms and previews GOP strategy on ‘The Big Weekend Show.’ -
Texas early voting data trends, what the first three days show for November midterm electionCBS News Sunday Morning CBS News Bay Area Evening Edition 11pm WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend CBS News Los Angeles Weekend 11pm WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am KDKA… -
Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout?Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.' Will Trump’s midterm blitz boost turnout? Paul Gigot interviews pollster Mark Penn on ‘The Journal Editorial Report.'
Related markets
All elections ›Midterms: which party wins Latino men? (Nov 3, 2026)
86%Democratic party
- Democratic party86%
- Republican party13%▼ 3
Midterms: which party wins older women? (Nov 3, 2026)
93%Democratic party
- Democratic party93%
- Republican party7%
Midterms: which party wins young men? (Nov 3, 2026)
84%Democratic party
- Democratic party84%▼ 1
- Republican party16%
Midterms: which party wins white college-educated men? (Nov 3, 2026)
90%Democratic party
- Democratic party90%▼ 1
- Republican party10%
Midterms: which party wins white suburban women? (Nov 3, 2026)
90%Democratic party
- Democratic party90%
- Republican party5%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions