Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
Nov 5, 5 PM ETZeus: 53% → 100%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Nov 2, 10 PM ETZeus: 67% → 60%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
Oct 28, 10 PM ETZeus: 75% → 58%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
Outcome
Chance
Day
Bid
Ask
Pays
Contracts
Zeus
100%
▲ 47
99¢
1.3K
Backlog
100%
▲ 24
99¢
396
Nuclear
97%
▲ 45
6¢
95¢
$1.05
896
China
95%
▲ 59
33¢
96¢
$1.04
241
Classified
88%
17¢
76¢
$1.32
5.0K
Autonomous
66%
▲ 33
24¢
65¢
$1.54
314
Headwind
66%
▲ 19
7¢
63¢
$1.59
189
Orbit
42%
▼ 47
36¢
77¢
$1.30
444
Ukraine
33%
▲ 5
4¢
32¢
$3.13
118
Tailwind
26%
▼ 4
3¢
21¢
$4.76
73.00
Venezuela
10%
▲ 5
12¢
$8.33
78.00
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 12 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions