Fed Decision in October?
95%No change
- No change95%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase5%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
SOFR at end of Q4 2026
The odds
4.17%median
2.75%5%
Median 4.17%Middle half 4.03% – 4.41%
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.27% on Oct 20, 4.17% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.00% | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 404 | |
| Above 3.25% | 97% | 95¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 2.00 | |
| Above 3.50% | 97% | 94¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 773 | |
| Above 3.75% | 94% | 92¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 9.4K | |
| Above 4.00% | 80% | ▼ 1 | 75¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 2.8K |
| Above 4.25% | 37% | 32¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 2.7K | |
| Above 4.50% | 18% | ▲ 1 | 15¢ | 21¢ | $4.76 | 16.7K |
| Above 4.75% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | $16.67 | 33.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: SOFR, EOQ4
Search ›-
F*YIB.CBT Interactive Stock Chart | 7-Year Eris SOFR Swap Futures,D StockYahoo Finance Oops, something went wrong -
An Update on How the Treasury Clearing Rule for Repo Might Affect SOFROFR updates its estimate of how the SEC's Treasury repo clearing mandate affects SOFR, finding higher volume but minimal rate impact using year-long data Legal Entity Identifier Tracker An Update on How the Treasury Clearing Rule for Repo… -
Municipality Finance Plc Adds $50M Tap to 2030 SOFR BenchmarkTradingView Municipality Finance Plc Adds $50M Tap to 2030 SOFR Benchmark On 16 Oct 2026, Municipality Finance Plc will issue a $50M tap to its 21 Jan 2026 USD benchmark, lifting the total to $925M. The notes mature 4 Feb 2030 and pay…
Related markets
All the fed ›Fed Decision in December?
76%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase76%▼ 1
- No change21%
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
73%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike73%
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%
- Other3%▲ 2
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Hike2%▼ 1
- Hike–Hike–Pause1%
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.30
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
77%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions