Will Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter? (Before Jan 1, 2027)

Kalshi Finance Closes Dec 31 · $430 traded · $190 at stake · prices read 7 h ago

The odds

6%chance▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Yes: 7% on Oct 19, 6% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	6%	▼ 1	3¢	8¢	$12.50	7.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Anthropic, Claude, Open Weights and American AI Leadership

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Anthropic takes on Muse with Claude Duet, its new AI agentThe Verge · 4 days agoAnthropic just announced an AI agent competitor to Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots: Claude Duet. The new agent, designed for professionals and small business owners, is launching as a "research preview," according to Anthropic, and it's…
Anthropic announces preview of Claude Duet, a personal AI agent to take on Muse, DotsCNBC · 4 days agoAnthropic on Wednesday announced a preview of Claude Duet, an artificial intelligence agent that will likely challenge OpenAI's Dots and Meta's Muse offerings. Claude Duet is designed for small businesses and professionals, Anthropic said…
Anthropic Launches Claude Platform on AWSInfoQ · 4 days agoQCon AI Boston (July 8-9, 2027): Agents. Context. Evals. Security. See how other teams make decisions. Register Now In this article series, we try to establish agentic AI architecture as a new type of software architecture that will likely…
Anthropic Introduces Routines for Claude Code AutomationInfoQ · 4 days agoQCon AI Boston (July 8-9, 2027): Agents. Context. Evals. Security. See how other teams make decisions. Register Now In this article series, we try to establish agentic AI architecture as a new type of software architecture that will likely…
Anthropic updates Claude Security to scan code continuouslyCrypto Briefing · 4 days agoThe public beta tool now rescans repositories on every commit and tracks each vulnerability until it is resolved Anthropic has rebuilt how Claude Security watches your code. The tool now monitors connected repositories continuously and…
Anthropic announces Claude Duet, a new proactive AI agentCrypto Briefing · 4 days agoEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
Anthropic Launches Claude Duet, a Proactive AI AgentMacRumors · 4 days agoAnthropic today introduced Claude Duet, its answer to Meta's Muse agent and OpenAI's Dots agent. Like Dots and Muse, it is a proactive agent that "reaches out before you ask." Claude Duet connects to your apps and suggests things that need…
Anthropic Announces Claude Duet, a Personal AI AgentThurrott.com · 4 days agoPaul Thurrott is an award-winning technology journalist and blogger with 30 years of industry experience and the author of 30 books. He is the owner of Thurrott.com and the host of three tech podcasts: Windows Weekly with Leo Laporte and…
Anthropic Integrates Stripe's Link Wallet & Provisioning Into Claude Loop AppTradingView · 4 days agoTradingView Anthropic Integrates Stripe's Link Wallet & Provisioning Into Claude Loop App
Anthropic Launches Claude Duet, a Proactive AI Agent AppiThinkDifferent · 4 days agoAnthropic has opened a research preview of Claude Duet, a new app where Claude works as a proactive agent instead of waiting for you to start a chat. It reads your connected apps, sends a morning brief, and messages you when something…
Anthropic says Claude designed binders for scorpion neurotoxinsBlockchain.News · 5 days agoAnthropic says Claude helped design 211 minibinders against scorpion neurotoxins, with 17 meeting binding criteria in lab tests. Anthropic said on Oct. 20, 2026 that an internal Claude research model helped design protein minibinders…
HHS Plans Sole-Source Anthropic Claude Contract Ahead of Enterprise AI BPAExecutive Gov · 4 days agoSeal: Department of Health & Human Services The Department of Health and Human Services plans to extend its access to Anthropic’s Claude artificial intelligence tools through a sole-source contract while preparing a competitive procurement…

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Finance › IPOs & deals

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

30%$1.75–$2.0T

$1.75–$2.0T30%
$1.5–$1.75T19%▼ 2
$2.0–$2.25T18%▲ 1

7 more

$2.25–$2.5T9%▼ 1
$1.25–$1.5T9%▲ 4
<$1.25T5%
$2.5–$2.75T4%▲ 1
$3.0T+3%
No IPO by December 31, 20272%
$2.75–$3.0T1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onthe Securities and Exchange Commission EDGAR database, Fox Business, ABC

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$430 (7,823 contracts)

At stake$190

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Anthropic officially announces signing of the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions