US imports of goods from China in 2026

Kalshi Economy › Growth & recession Closes Feb 4, 2027 · $3K traded · $2.4K at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

$277.97median

$200$320

Median $277.97

How the odds have moved

Median: $277.97 on Oct 20, $277.97 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Below $220 billion	97%	95¢	99¢	$1.01	314
Below $240 billion	97%	94¢	99¢	$1.01	1.6K
Below $260 billion	77%	73¢	80¢	$1.25	586
Below $280 billion	47%	43¢	51¢	$1.96	962
Below $300 billion	28%	24¢	31¢	$3.23	711

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: China, Taiwan

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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State of the economy at the end of 2026

68%Overheating

Overheating68%▼ 3
Soft landing27%▼ 3
Stagflation2%▲ 1

1 more

Slack / disinflation1%

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFRED

Trading closesFeb 4, 2027 8:29 AM ET

Traded$3K (4,208 contracts)

This week$3K

At stake$2.4K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If U.S. imports of goods by customs basis from China (FRED series IMPCH) in calendar year 2026 are below $220 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.