Los Angeles Mayor winner? (2026)
55%Nithya Raman
- Nithya Raman55%▲ 2
- Karen Bass46%▼ 2
Install
Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?
The odds
23%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 24% on Oct 19, 23% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 23% | 21¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 1.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: California
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The California climate move-out10/23/2026 07:30 PM EDT With help from Noah Baustin and Alex Nieves Extreme weather could force more Californians to leave their homes. | Ethan Swope/AP PACK YOUR BAGS: More wildfires, greater flooding, longer and more extreme heat waves… -
California in the voting crosshairsYour afternoon must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State 10/22/2026 04:55 PM EDT California is fighting a host of voting-related battles with less than two weeks until the midterm election. | Frederic J. Brown/AFP… -
California cracks down on illegal marijuana growingCalifornia congressman James Gallagher discusses the crackdown on illegal marijuana growing in California. Gallagher talks about the Chinese crime ties to this illegal growing. He seeks the FBI and Kash Patel to help go after this… -
DOJ demands that California counties help identify noncitizen votersThe Department of Justice on Friday warned local election officials in California to cooperate with the administration to identify noncitizens on a list of registered voters or face potential legal action, according to a letter obtained by… -
DOJ demands Southern California registrars verify alleged noncitizen ballotsCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. DOJ demands… -
Feds put California school districts’ ‘TMI’ student questionnaires on noticeIt’s wrong to promote radical gender ideology in schools. And it’s unconscionable to hide such efforts from parents. As The California Post reported exclusively, the US Department of Education on Friday announced investigations into three… -
California faces court deadline in Trump administration's noncitizen voter disputeThe Ninth Circuit ordered California to respond to an emergency Justice Department request seeking to set aside ballots tied to roughly 20,000 suspected noncitizens ahead of the midterm elections. California faces court deadline in Trump… -
Thursday evening Northern California weather forecast - October 22, 2026CBS News Thursday evening Northern California weather forecast - October 22, 2026 Proposed billionaire wealth tax nearly drove Mark Zuckerberg out of California, Meta says Cal Fire says it's "a long ways out" before fire season is over… -
California officials ordered by DoJ to set aside ‘likely’ noncitizen ballotsLetters from federal prosecutors represent latest escalation as Trump continues to make claims of voter fraud The letters are the latest escalation in a legal battle between California and Donald Trump’s Department of Justice, which has… -
Are California voters about to impose world's first 'tax on billionaires'?Few places on the planet have as many ultra-wealthy residents as California, a US state known for glamour, coastal mega-mansions and being home to many rich and famous. Now voters are about to decide if the mega-rich among them - names… -
California voters’ major shift on billionaire tax revealed in new pollCalifornia voters are souring on a proposed billionaire tax, with more than half opposing the measure, while a contentious voter ID proposal has sparked a razor-thin divide in the deep-blue state, a new California Post poll reveals… -
Justice Department asks appeals court to intervene in California ballot caseMorning Rundown: Trump predicts GOP defeat in key race, Airbnb sets new rules for hosts, and World Series begins as lockout looms The Justice Department asked an appeals court Thursday to intervene in its lawsuit seeking to temporarily…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.