When will Blue Origin launch New Shepard?

Kalshi Tech › Space Closes Dec 31, 2028 · $41 traded · $27 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

The odds

39%Before 2029

Before 202939%
Before July, 202822%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before 2029	39%		35¢	43¢	$2.33
Before July, 2028	22%	▲ 1	19¢	25¢	$4.00	186

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New Shepard Launch, Blue Origin, New Shepard

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All space ›

Tech › Space

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

Jun 13, 2027even chance by

December 31, 202618%▼ 12
January 31, 202733%▼ 6
February 28, 202736%▼ 7

2 more

June 30, 202753%▼ 5
December 31, 202765%▼ 1

Tech › Space

How many launches will SpaceX have in October? (Oct 2026)

10.5median

517

Median 10.5Middle half 10.1 – 10.8

Tech › Space

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$924.67Bmedian

$600B$1.3T

Median $924.67BMiddle half $858.37B – $984.55B

Tech › Space

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? (Before 2027)

21%Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 20, 202921%▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 202814%
Before Jan 1, 20274%

2 more

Before Dec 1, 20263%
Before Nov 1, 20261%

Tech › Space

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

71%November 30, 2026

November 30, 202671%▼ 7
Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?61%▲ 1
Super Heavy booster explodes?43%▲ 3

4 more

Chopsticks catch Starship?42%▼ 6
Successful splash down?34%▼ 1
November 15, 20266%▼ 8
October 31, 20261%

Tech › Space

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

143.1median

100220

Median 143.1Middle half 140.6 – 146.6

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFederal Aviation Administration, Blue Origin

Trading closesDec 31, 2028 11:59 PM ET

Traded$41 (186 contracts)

This week$41

At stake$27

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Blue Origin launches New Shepard After issuance and before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.