What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 20, 2026?

Kalshi Weather Closed Tue 7:59 PM ET · $19.7K today · $19.8K traded · $13.8K at stake

Settled Between 6.20 and 6.40A day before, traders had a median of 5.73

The last odds before it closed

—
  • ✓ Magnitude of at least 5.299%▲ 5
  • ✓ Magnitude of at least 5.499%▲ 15
  • ✓ Magnitude of at least 5.699%▲ 30
  • ✓ Magnitude of at least 5.899%▲ 46
  • ✓ Magnitude of at least 6.099%▲ 53
  • ✓ Magnitude of at least 6.299%▲ 64
  • Magnitude of at least 6.430%▲ 2
  • Magnitude of at least 6.67%▼ 16
  • Magnitude of at least 6.81%▼ 18
  • Magnitude of at least 7.04%▼ 9

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Last odds Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
✓ Magnitude of at least 5.2 99% 2.2K
✓ Magnitude of at least 5.4 99% 2.7K
✓ Magnitude of at least 5.6 99% 2.5K
✓ Magnitude of at least 5.8 99% 2.5K
✓ Magnitude of at least 6.0 99% 2.8K
✓ Magnitude of at least 6.2 99% 5.9K
✗ Magnitude of at least 6.4 30% 3.8K
✗ Magnitude of at least 6.6 7% 3.1K
✗ Magnitude of at least 6.8 1% 631
✗ Magnitude of at least 7.0 4% 777

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: earthquake, Worldwide

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  • Magnitude 4.2 Earthquake Hits Nepaldeccanchronicle.com · 12 h agoTremors Felt In Baitadi And Darchula Districts After Earthquake Struck Sudur Paschim Province; No Immediate Reports Of Damage. An earthquake of magnitude 4.2 struck Nepal's Baitadi district on Sunday, according to the Earthquake Monitoring…
  • A 7.0-magnitude earthquake jolts Japan's Ogasawara IslandsThe Star · 4 h agoTOKYO: An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.0 on Sunday (Oct 25) struck waters near the Ogasawara Islands in the Pacific Ocean, south of Tokyo, with no tsunami warnings issued, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said. A…
  • Magnitude 5.9 earthquake strikes Tibet region: EMSCThe Hindu · 8 h agoA magnitude 5.9 earthquake hit Tibet at 9 km depth, with ongoing updates and context on previous regional seismic events. Updated - October 25, 2026 06:19 pm IST The quake was ​at ‌a depth of 9 ‌km (5 ​miles), EMSC added. An ⁠earthquake of…
  • Magnitude 5.7 earthquake strikes China's Qinghai regionHindustan Times · 9 h agoAn earthquake of around magnitude 5.6 struck China's Qinghai region, according to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre. | World News Magnitude 5.7 earthquake strikes China's Qinghai region An earthquake of around magnitude 5.6…
  • Magnitude-7.0 earthquake strike waters near Japan's Ogasawara IslandsThe Star · 4 h agoTOKYO (Xinhua): An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.0 on Sunday struck waters near the Ogasawara Islands in the Pacific Ocean, south of Tokyo, with no tsunami warnings issued, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) said. The…
  • Magnitude 4.2 earthquake strikes Nepal's Baitadi districtNews18 · 12 h agoKathmandu, Oct 25 (PTI) An earthquake of magnitude 4.2 struck Nepal’s Baitadi district on Sunday, according to the Earthquake Monitoring and Research Centre. The epicentre of the earthquake, which occurred on Sunday afternoon, was in the…
  • Deep 6.5-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Off Japan, No DamageteleSURenglish · 12 h agoA deep earthquake struck southeast of Japan near the Ogasawara Islands, with agencies reporting magnitudes of 6.5 and 7. No casualties, material damage or tsunami alerts were reported. October 25, 2026 Hour: 3:03 am A powerful earthquake…
  • Tibet Earthquake: 16 Dead as Damage Reported Across 16,000 Households@IBTimesUK · 9 h agoA magnitude 7.0 Tibet earthquake that struck Nagqu on Thursday, 22 October 2026, has killed 16 people and injured 76, according to local authorities. In an updated assessment on Sunday, officials said 93 households had homes collapse…
  • 7.5 Magnitude Earthquake strikes Taiwan, Tsunami warning issuedAl Bawaba · 15 h agoALBAWABA - The Japan Meteorological Agency announced that a 7.5-magnitude earthquake near Taiwan on Wednesday at 9:00 am caused tsunami advisories for southern Japanese islands. This was a severe seismic event.Okinawa was issued a tsunami…
  • World Earthquake Report for Sunday, 25 October 2026@EQAlerts · 16 h agoEarthquake news: reports and updates on earthquake activity world-wide Look up quakes in: World Earthquake Report for Sunday, 25 October 2026 10 largest earthquakes in the world (past 24 hours) #12: Mag 4.1 Provincia de Loja, Ecuador - 3…
  • 6.2-magnitude earthquake hits Vanuatu in Pacific OceanThe Times of India · 18 h agoThe Times of India A magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck the Vanuatu islands in the Pacific Ocean on Sunday, October 25, according to the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ).The earthquake occurred at a depth of 125 kilometres (78…
  • Japan: 6.5 magnitude earthquake hits Bonin Islands regionNews9live · 17 h agoNew Delhi: An earthquake measuring 6.5 on the Richter scale struck the Bonin Islands region in Japan early Sunday morning, said the United States Geological Survey. The Bonin Islands are also known as the Ogasawara Islands and lie…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions