Fed Decision in October?
94%No change
- No change94%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase5%▼ 2
- 50+ bps increase<1%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Size of Fed balance sheet at end of 2026
The odds
$6.79median
$6.10$7.40
Median $6.79Middle half $6.72 – $6.89
How the odds have moved
Median: $6.78 on Oct 20, $6.79 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $6.2 trillion | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 373 | ||
| Above $6.3 trillion | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 252 | ||
| Above $6.4 trillion | 98% | 96¢ | $1.02 | 665 | ||
| Above $6.5 trillion | 95% | 90¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 201 | |
| Above $6.6 trillion | 91% | 87¢ | 95¢ | $1.05 | 317 | |
| Above $6.7 trillion | 83% | 79¢ | 87¢ | $1.15 | 906 | |
| Above $6.8 trillion | 45% | 41¢ | 49¢ | $2.04 | 770 | |
| Above $6.9 trillion | 24% | 23¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 704 | |
| Above $7.0 trillion | 21% | 17¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 687 | |
| Above $7.1 trillion | 18% | 13¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 520 | |
| Above $7.2 trillion | 13% | 9¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 3.5K | |
| Above $7.3 trillion | 10% | 6¢ | 14¢ | $7.14 | 11.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
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Federal Reserve: October hold raises December hike odds - TD SecuritiesTD Securities strategists expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep the Fed Funds rate at 4.00% at the October FOMC meeting, despite strong inflation and solid labor data. They see this pause increasing the likelihood of rate hikes in… -
Inflation, earnings reports and the mood of consumers and the Federal Reserve fill out a busy weekA key update on inflation and its impact on consumer confidence, economic growth and interest rate policy will fill a busy calendar this week along with more big earnings reports. They all arrive just weeks before the Nov. 3 midterm… -
Pine Bluff NAACP asks Federal Reserve for community meeting on Simmons Bank branch closingThe Pine Bluff Branch NAACP recently filed a written request with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis asking the federal regulator to consult with community leaders and hold a public meeting before Simmons Bank closes its branch at 1704… -
Two Cheers For Warsh's "Quiet" Federal ReserveRealClearMarkets Two Cheers For Warsh's "Quiet" Federal Reserve -
The Federal Reserve At A Time Of UncertaintyEconomic uncertainty has increased on several fronts. That has made it even more difficult than before for the Fed to forecast the path of inflation and employment. Read more here... - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been consistently clear… -
The Federal Reserve's Latest October Inflation Forecast Has Arrived, and It's Terrible News for Wall StreetYear four of Wall Street's bull market didn't disappoint. The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure build-out lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI +0.02%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.21%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -2.60%) to… -
West Virginia home prices outpace national growth, says Federal Reserve reportWest Virginia’s unemployment rate fell to 4% in September, below the national average, but year-over-year job growth remained flat as home prices rose 8% in the second quarter of 2026, outpacing national growth, according to the Federal… -
Nexo: Federal Reserve Decisions Put Crypto Market Recovery to the TestAccording to Nexo’s analysis, bitcoin’s price trajectory depends largely on Federal Reserve policy and upcoming inflation trends. Continued growth could be sustained if interest rates are held steady or reduced, whereas hawkish monetary… - Brent Crude Tops $100 as Markets Await Federal Reserve September Meeting MinutesUS stock futures showed little directional conviction Wednesday morning as market participants positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting readout. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped marginally into negative…
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Federal Reserve preview: A pause before a December hikeDespite hot inflation prints in September and the Fed having signalled that further action to tame inflation will likely be needed, markets and economists are united in expecting the central bank to leave interest rates on hold at the 28… -
US dollar slips as Treasury yields fall ahead of Federal Reserve meetingReviewed by Rami Haddad, Editor-in-Chief · Last update: 2026.10.22 The US dollar weakened against major currencies on Thursday, October 22, as declining Treasury yields reduced support for the greenback, while investors assessed the… -
Satire: Federal Reserve warns that ‘walking-around money’ could soon exceed $50The following piece is satire and should not be misconstrued as actual reporting. Any resemblance to a student, staff or faculty member is coincidental. Earlier today, high-ranking members of the United States Federal Reserve issued a…
Related markets
All the fed ›How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
96%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)96%
- 1 (25 bps)1%▲ 1
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▼ 1
- No change22%▲ 1
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
75%chance▼ 3
Number of rate cuts in 2026?
0.04median
-0.5020.5
Median 0.04Middle half -0.23 – 0.31
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
74%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike74%▲ 3
- Hike–Pause–Pause21%▲ 1
- Hike–Hike–Hike3%
2 more
- Other1%
- Hike–Hike–Pause1%▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.