Will Apple win its case against OpenAI? (Before 2029)

Kalshi Finance Closes Dec 31, 2028 · $139 traded · $112 at stake · prices read 6 h ago

The odds

56%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 62% on Oct 19, 56% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Yes	56%		51¢	60¢	$1.67	251

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: OpenAI, ChatGPT, Apple

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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues ChatGPT-maker OpenAI@kbtxnews · 2 days agoTEXAS (The Texas Tribune) - Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, for allegedly deceiving and harming Texans. This is the latest in a flurry of lawsuits filed against Big Tech companies and private corporations…
Sweden's Government Offices Block ChatGPT and Claude, Keep Microsoft CopilotDecrypt · 30 h agoSweden's Government Offices—the administrative body supporting the prime minister and cabinet—will block ChatGPT and Claude on staff computers from Monday, directing civil servants to Microsoft's Copilot as the only approved AI tool…
Texas AG Ken Paxton sues OpenAI over ChatGPT safety claimsHouston Chronicle · 2 days agoTexas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing technology company OpenAI for allegedly failing to protect Texans from the harms of using ChatGPT. Paxton speaks during a news conference with U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright in Houston on…
OpenAI Opens ChatGPT Advertising to Nigerian BusinessesProduct Reviews · 3 days agoThe rollout introduces conversational monetization to one of Africa’s most vibrant digital economies, granting local organizations direct access to a rapidly expanding user base that relies on generative AI for daily productivity…
Apple revives the original iPod as an Apple Music easter eggThe Verge · 2 days agoIf you've been feeling nostalgic for your old iPod, you can head over to Apple Music's 404 page to play music on a virtual recreation of the first-generation iPod. The hidden iPod was spotted by users on social media on Friday. It's…
Apple iPhone Duo hits store shelvesCNBC · 2 days agoCNBCâs MacKenzie Sigalos reports on the launch of Appleâs iPhone Duo from the companyâs flagship store in New York City. iPhone Duo release is first major test of Appleâs push under new CEO
Fired OpenAI researchers say independent safety audits aren't going wellNPR · 2 days agoIn their first interview since being fired, OpenAI safety researchers Mikita Balesni and Tomek Korbak say they were terminated for prioritizing safety over the short-term interests of the company. Fired OpenAI researchers say independent…
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sues OpenAI and Sam Altman over ChatGPT safety claimsCrypto Briefing · 2 days agoThe Collin County lawsuit alleges OpenAI misled users about ChatGPT's risks and failed to protect children from harm OpenAI / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain) Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has sued OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman. He…
OpenAI takes ChatGPT models to Google Cloudthehansindia.com · 3 days agoOpenAI is expanding its cloud reach with Google, giving businesses more flexibility while Microsoft remains its primary cloud partner. OpenAI is making its artificial intelligence models widely available by bringing ChatGPT technology to…
Texas becomes the latest state to sue OpenAI.The Verge · 2 days agoSimilar to the lawsuits filed by Arizona, West Virginia, Iowa, and several others, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton accuses OpenAI of misleading users about the safety of ChatGPT, allegedly exposing children and other users to a “litany…
Apple's new iPhone Duo hits store shelvesCNBC · 2 days agoCNBCâs MacKenzie Sigalos reports on the queues outside Apple's flagship New York City for the launch of the new iPhone Duo. Apple's new iPhone Duo hits store shelves
Customers wait in overnight lines for Apple's iPhone DuoFox News · 47 h agoVideo shows eager shoppers gathering outside Apple stores across the world, hours before the new iPhone Duo hit the shelves. Customers wait in overnight lines for Apple's iPhone Duo Video shows eager shoppers gathering outside Apple stores…

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Apple’s Market Cap end of 2026?

$5.22Tmedian

$3T$6.5T

Median $5.22TMiddle half $4.69T – $5.59T

Finance › Stocks

What will Apple (AAPL) hit in October 2026?

$354.50high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $354.50 and as low as $335.25.

Reaches $35263%
Reaches $36023%

Falls to $33653%
Falls to $32821%

Already reached: ↑ $344, ↑ $336, ↓ $328, ↓ $328, ↑ $336, ↑ $336

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Largest Company end of October 2026?

70%NVIDIA

NVIDIA70%▲ 9
Apple28%▼ 11
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6 more

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Largest Company end of December 2026?

60%NVIDIA

NVIDIA60%▲ 1
Apple37%▼ 1
Alphabet1%

5 more

Microsoft1%
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Tesla<1%
Saudi Aramco<1%
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Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by...?

>99%October 31

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December 31>99%

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2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

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NVIDIA32%▼ 8
Microsoft<1%

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Alphabet<1%
Tesla<1%
Saudi Aramco<1%
Amazon<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onU.S. District Court for the Northern District of California

Trading closesDec 31, 2028 11:59 PM ET

Traded$139 (251 contracts)

At stake$112

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If Apple Inc. has achieved the superior outcome in the trial-level resolution of Apple v. OpenAI, No. 5:26-cv-07078 after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Prices it is about

Apple Inc.AAPL · about the company347.73−0.14%

From 4Search Finance. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions