US recession by end of 2026?
7%chance▼ 1
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US Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers (Dec 2026)
The odds
16,668median
14,00017,000
Median 16,668Middle half 16,603 – 16,734
How the odds have moved
Median: 16,675 on Oct 20, 16,668 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 14,200 | 88% | $1.14 | ||||
| Above 14,400 | 88% | $1.14 | 20.00 | |||
| Above 14,600 | 88% | $1.14 | 70.00 | |||
| Above 14,800 | 88% | $1.14 | 130 | |||
| Above 15,000 | 88% | $1.14 | 240 | |||
| Above 15,200 | 88% | $1.14 | 380 | |||
| Above 15,400 | 88% | $1.14 | 560 | |||
| Above 15,600 | 88% | $1.14 | 710 | |||
| Above 15,800 | 88% | $1.14 | 790 | |||
| Above 16,000 | 88% | $1.14 | 810 | |||
| Above 16,200 | 88% | $1.14 | 720 | |||
| Above 16,400 | 88% | $1.14 | 580 | |||
| Above 16,600 | 76% | $1.32 | 360 | |||
| Above 16,800 | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Retail Sales of Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.