US Unemployment Rate (Dec 2026)
4.12%median
0.7%7.2%
Median 4.12%Middle half 3.8% – 4.78%
Install
US Unemployment Rate (Oct 2026)
The odds
46%Above 3.4%
3.2%5.2%
How the odds have moved
Above 3.4%: 47% on Oct 20, 46% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.4% | 46% | $2.16 | ||||
| Above 3.6% | 46% | $2.16 | ||||
| Above 3.8% | 46% | $2.16 | 2.2K | |||
| Above 4% | 46% | $2.16 | 1.6K | |||
| Above 4.2% | 37% | $2.70 | 452 | |||
| Above 4.4% | 5% | $22.22 | 900 | |||
| Above 4.6% | 5% | $22.22 | 800 | |||
| Above 4.8% | 5% | $22.22 | ||||
| Above 5% | 5% | $22.22 | 700 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
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Hawaiʻi unemployment rates tick upward, with Kauaʻi impacted most at 5.1%HONOLULU (KHON2) -- Kauaʻi’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.1% in September, up sharply from 2.5% in August. That's according to new state data. The increase stood out across Hawaiʻi as the statewide rate edged up to 2.8%. The state… -
West Virginia unemployment rate holds steady at 4% in SeptemberWest Virginia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4% in September, unchanged from August, as the state added 400 employed residents and saw 600 fewer unemployed residents, according to WorkForce West Virginia. CHARLESTON… -
Jacksonville-area unemployment rate falls to 4.5% in SeptemberJACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The unemployment rate in Northeast Florida fell to 4.5% in September, down from 4.8% in August but up from 4.4% a year earlier, according to CareerSource Northeast Florida. The rate across Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau… - Alaska Employment: Positive Job Growth While September Unemployment Rate Holds FlatOct 19, 2026 | Government, News DOLWD notes that the national unemployment rate ticked up slightly from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent in September. The unadjusted unemployment rate in the Anchorage/Mat-Su Region rose to 3.6 percent in…
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UK unemployment rate falls to 4.7% as jobs rebound, keeping BOE rate hike bets intactWow. That is quite the contrast from what we saw with the July numbers on employment and unemployment, as well as the drastic revision higher to the payrolls figure for August. So, just keep that in mind. But at first glance, these numbers… - North Bay Unemployment Rates Hold Below State AverageUnemployment across the North Bay remains lower than California’s overall rate, according to new state figures. Data released Friday places September unemployment at 4.3 percent in Sonoma County and 4.2 percent in Napa County. Both local…
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Surprise drop in UK unemployment to 4.7%ONS data shows rate down from 4.9% but number of job vacancies continues to shrink Business live – news updates Unemployment in the UK fell unexpectedly in the three months to August, to 4.7% from 4.9%. The Office for National Statistics… -
Ex-Medford teacher was accused of having sex with a student at a previous job: reportMedford Public Schools hired a teacher who was accused of having sex with a student while working in Florida nearly a decade ago, according to a report by the Boston Globe. School officials say they missed the red flag because he changed… -
Unemployment rate drops to 4.6%; healthcare adds jobsDelaware’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hit 4.6% in September, down from 4.7% in August of this year, the Delaware Department of Labor reported. The total number of unemployed Delawareans was 23,400 in September 2026, down from… -
Kimberly Guilfoyle pleaded with Hegseth and Fox owner Rupert Murdoch to help save her job: reportThe ex-Fox News host was asked to resign as US ambassador to Greece after a series of damaging stories about her were published Kimberly Guilfoyle pleaded with three influential men to help save her job as U.S. ambassador to Greece after a… -
UK Unemployment Falls to 4.7% as Pay Growth MixedThe Office for National Statistics reported this morning that UK unemployment came in below what economists expected, while pay growth and the claimant count sent mixed signals for the Bank of England's Bank Rate. UK unemployment fell to… -
Unemployment in Scotland falls, latest figures showUNEMPLOYMENT in Scotland has fallen in the last quarter, according to the latest figures. Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows the unemployment rate for people aged 16 and over was 4.3% between June to August this year…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.