US Unemployment Rate (Dec 2026)
4.12%median
0.7%7.2%
Median 4.12%Middle half 3.8% – 4.78%
Install
US Unemployment Rate (Jun 2027)
The odds
4.1%median
1.8%6.8%
Median 4.1%
How the odds have moved
Median: 4.1% on Oct 20, 4.1% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.3% | 62% | $1.61 | ||||
| Above 2.8% | 62% | $1.61 | 30.00 | |||
| Above 3.3% | 62% | $1.61 | 5.4K | |||
| Above 3.8% | 62% | $1.61 | 1.7K | |||
| Above 4.3% | 42% | $2.38 | 423 | |||
| Above 4.8% | 21% | $4.76 | 600 | |||
| Above 5.3% | 9% | $11.11 | 40.00 | |||
| Above 5.8% | <1% | |||||
| Above 6.3% | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: jobs report, unemployment, payrolls
Search ›-
West Virginia unemployment rate holds steady at 4% in SeptemberWest Virginia’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4% in September, unchanged from August, as the state added 400 employed residents and saw 600 fewer unemployed residents, according to WorkForce West Virginia. CHARLESTON… -
Hawaiʻi unemployment rates tick upward, with Kauaʻi impacted most at 5.1%HONOLULU (KHON2) -- Kauaʻi’s unemployment rate climbed to 5.1% in September, up sharply from 2.5% in August. That's according to new state data. The increase stood out across Hawaiʻi as the statewide rate edged up to 2.8%. The state… -
Jacksonville-area unemployment rate falls to 4.5% in SeptemberJACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The unemployment rate in Northeast Florida fell to 4.5% in September, down from 4.8% in August but up from 4.4% a year earlier, according to CareerSource Northeast Florida. The rate across Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau… -
Unemployment rate drops to 4.6%; healthcare adds jobsDelaware’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hit 4.6% in September, down from 4.7% in August of this year, the Delaware Department of Labor reported. The total number of unemployed Delawareans was 23,400 in September 2026, down from… - North Bay Unemployment Rates Hold Below State AverageUnemployment across the North Bay remains lower than California’s overall rate, according to new state figures. Data released Friday places September unemployment at 4.3 percent in Sonoma County and 4.2 percent in Napa County. Both local…
- Alaska Employment: Positive Job Growth While September Unemployment Rate Holds FlatOct 19, 2026 | Government, News DOLWD notes that the national unemployment rate ticked up slightly from 4.1 percent to 4.2 percent in September. The unadjusted unemployment rate in the Anchorage/Mat-Su Region rose to 3.6 percent in…
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UK unemployment rate falls to 4.7% as jobs rebound, keeping BOE rate hike bets intactWow. That is quite the contrast from what we saw with the July numbers on employment and unemployment, as well as the drastic revision higher to the payrolls figure for August. So, just keep that in mind. But at first glance, these numbers… -
Massachusetts gained jobs in September but unemployment rate held at 4.3%Massachusetts gained 3,500 jobs in September, its jobless rate was unchanged, and its labor force grew, according to preliminary data from the Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development. “There were several positive labor market… -
Alabama’s unemployment rate hits five-year high at 3.5%Alabama’s unemployment rate increased to a five-year high in September. According to a release by the Alabama Department of Workforce on Friday, Alabama’s preliminary, seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.5% in September, up… -
ILO: Libya has highest youth unemployment rate in North AfricaThe International Labour Organization (ILO) said Libya recorded the highest youth unemployment rate in North Africa in 2025, at 50.1%, compared with an overall unemployment rate of 18.8%, according to estimates in its Global Employment… -
Florida Unemployment Rate Drops for Fourth Consecutive Month; South Florida Registers Lowest Rate at 3.2%Saturday, October 17, 2026 by Claire Jimenez The Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach metropolitan area wrapped up September with an unemployment rate of 3.2%, marking the lowest in all of Florida and a significant drop from August's… -
San Luis Obispo County unemployment rate decreasingOver the past month, unemployment rates decreased in San Luis Obispo County, the state Employment Development Department reported Friday. The county unemployment rate dropped from 4.7% in August to 4.6% in September. During September, job…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.