US Fed Funds Target Rate (Dec 10, 2026)
4%median
0.88%4.88%
Median 4%Middle half 3.91% – 4.09%
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US Fed Funds Target Rate (Oct 29, 2026)
The odds
3.76%median
1.13%4.63%
Median 3.76%Middle half 3.69% – 3.84%
How the odds have moved
Median: 3.76% on Oct 20, 3.76% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.375% | 97% | $1.03 | 110 | |||
| Above 1.625% | 97% | $1.03 | 130 | |||
| Above 1.875% | 97% | $1.03 | 180 | |||
| Above 2.125% | 97% | $1.03 | 202 | |||
| Above 2.375% | 97% | $1.03 | 249 | |||
| Above 2.625% | 97% | $1.03 | 400 | |||
| Above 2.875% | 97% | $1.03 | 550 | |||
| Above 3.125% | 97% | $1.03 | 321 | |||
| Above 3.375% | 97% | $1.03 | 7.4K | |||
| Above 3.625% | 97% | $1.03 | 372 | |||
| Above 3.875% | 12% | $8.33 | 9.5K | |||
| Above 4.125% | 5% | $20.00 | 842 | |||
| Above 4.375% | 2% | $50.00 | 110 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›-
Federal Reserve seen skipping Oct rate hike but hiking in Dec - Reuters pollInvesting.com - The Federal Reserve is set to keep interest rates steady at the central bank's next monetary policy meeting later this month, but raise borrowing costs once again in December, according to a Reuters poll released on… -
The Federal Reserve Just Warned More Rate Hikes Are Likely Coming. History Has Good and Bad News for InvestorsAnd the Fed just warned that more rate hikes are likely coming. Against this backdrop, history has good and bad news for investors. First, though, let's start with a summary of the market situation over the past few years. As mentioned… -
Housing is flashing warning signs just as the Fed weighs more interest rate hikesThe Federal Reserve's inflation fight is running into a growing complication: The housing market is slumping even as broader price pressures persist. Housing data deteriorated further in September, according to separate reports Tuesday… -
View / The AI boom doesn’t answer to the FedAI giants keep borrowing as rates rise, blunting the central bank’s main tool against inflation. Lizâs viewOne rule of investing is âdonât fight the Fed.â Playing the contrarian to the Federal Reserveâs plans to stimulate or… -
AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fightExplore the BridgeTower Media network. 36 publications across 4 industries. AI boom complicates Federal Reserve’s inflation fight Federal Reserve officials say rapid artificial intelligence investment by companies such as Amazon, Apple and… -
Could Donald Trump Save the Federal Reserve?So who is Warsh? As an undergraduate at Stanford, he worked as a research assistant to Milton Friedman, and he has retained his teacher’s skepticism toward Federal Reserve overreach and intervention in financial markets. Friedman famously… -
Fed Minutes Show Another Rate Hike Is Likely This Year as Kevin Warsh's FOMC Battles Persistent Inflation. Here's Why That Signal Matters for Stocks and Bonds Heading Into Year-End.According to the latest meeting minutes released Oct. 7 by the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Kevin Warsh and the other central bankers are planning to hike interest rates again in 2026. The FOMC has two more… -
Gold slips as investors await Fed rate signalsGold slipped on Wednesday as investors awaited next week's Federal Reserve policy decision for fresh signals on the trajectory of US interest rates. Fundamentals Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,118.64... S&P GSCI Precious Metals Index Gold…
Related markets
All the fed ›US Fed Funds Target Rate (Jan 28, 2027)
4.08%median
0.63%4.88%
Median 4.08%Middle half 3.96% – 4.27%
Fed Decision in October?
88%No change
- No change88%▲ 3
- 25 bps increase11%▼ 3
- 25 bps decrease<1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
97%0 (0 bps)
- 0 (0 bps)97%▼ 1
- 1 (25 bps)1%
- 2 (50 bps)<1%
10 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
- 3 (75 bps)<1%
- 5 (125 bps)<1%
- 6 (150 bps)<1%
- 7 (175 bps)<1%
- 8 (200 bps)<1%
- 9 (225 bps)<1%
- 10 (250 bps)<1%
- 11 (275 bps)<1%
- 12+ (300+ bps)<1%
Fed Decision in January?
60%No change
- No change60%▼ 5
- 25 bps increase37%▲ 3
- 25 bps decrease1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed Decision in December?
77%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase77%
- No change19%
- 50+ bps increase3%
2 more
- 25 bps decrease1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.