How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Polymarket Closes Dec 31 · $54.1M traded · prices read 5 min ago

The odds

97%0 (0 bps)
  • 0 (0 bps)97%▲ 1
  • 1 (25 bps)2%
  • 2 (50 bps)1%
  • 3 (75 bps)<1%
  • 4 (100 bps)<1%
  • 5 (125 bps)<1%
  • 6 (150 bps)<1%
  • 7 (175 bps)<1%
  • 8 (200 bps)<1%
  • 9 (225 bps)<1%
  • 10 (250 bps)<1%
  • 11 (275 bps)<1%
1 more
  • 12+ (300+ bps)<1%

How the odds have moved

0 (0 bps): 97% on Oct 13, 97% now.

Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Polymarket.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Traded
0 (0 bps) 97% ▲ 1 96¢ 96¢ $8.9M
1 (25 bps) 2% 2¢ 2¢ $3.5M
2 (50 bps) 1% 1¢ 1¢ $3.4M
3 (75 bps) <1% 0¢ 0¢ $3.0M
4 (100 bps) <1% 0¢ 0¢ $2.8M
5 (125 bps) <1% 0¢ 0¢ $3.0M
6 (150 bps) <1% 0¢ $4.2M
7 (175 bps) <1% 0¢ $3.5M
8 (200 bps) <1% 0¢ $3.3M
9 (225 bps) <1% 0¢ $4.3M
10 (250 bps) <1% 0¢ $5.0M
11 (275 bps) <1% 0¢ $5.3M
12+ (300+ bps) <1% 0¢ $4.0M

More on this question

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.

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