Fed decision in Mar 2027?
45%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate45%▲ 2
- Hike 25bps44%▼ 8
- Cut >25bps5%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps4%
1 more
- Cut 25bps3%
Install
Fed decision in Apr 2027?
The odds
66%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate66%▼ 6
- Hike 25bps19%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps10%
- Cut >25bps4%
- Hike >25bps1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Fed maintains rate: 67% on Oct 13, 66% now.
Each outcome's chance over time, from its prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 66% | ▼ 6 | 64¢ | 65¢ | 17.6K |
| Hike 25bps | 19% | ▲ 3 | 17¢ | 20¢ | 2.1K |
| Cut 25bps | 10% | 6¢ | 13¢ | 5.1K | |
| Cut >25bps | 4% | 3¢ | 5¢ | 3.3K | |
| Hike >25bps | 1% | ▼ 1 | 2¢ | 23.0K |
More on this question
All central banks & rates ›Fed decision in Jun 2027?
57%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate57%▲ 3
- Hike 25bps28%
- Cut >25bps6%
- Cut 25bps6%
1 more
- Hike >25bps3%▼ 1
Fed Decision in January?
63%No change
- No change63%▼ 1
- 25 bps increase32%▲ 1
- 25 bps decrease2%
- 50+ bps increase2%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease1%
Fed decision in Jul 2027?
78%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate78%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps10%▲ 3
- Cut 25bps7%▲ 1
- Hike >25bps6%▼ 2
1 more
- Cut >25bps1%
Fed Decision in December?
74%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase74%▲ 1
- No change22%
- 50+ bps increase3%
- 25 bps decrease1%
1 more
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Fed decision in Sep 2027?
73%Fed maintains rate
- Fed maintains rate73%▼ 2
- Hike 25bps8%
- Cut 25bps8%
- Hike >25bps6%
1 more
- Cut >25bps5%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi and Polymarket, not forecasts by 4Search. Read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed up to 15 min. Not investment advice.
Market data is provided for information only and comes from free public sources. Prices may be delayed up to 15 minutes; data may be incomplete or inaccurate. Nothing on this page is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. News and coverage analytics are drawn from the 4Search index. Terms of use.