TX-37 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket Elections › House Closes Nov 3 · $3.1K today · $23.8K traded · $1.4K at stake · prices read 29 min ago

The odds

31%Democrat 65-70%
  • Democrat 65-70%31%▲ 16
  • Democrat 60-65%25%▲ 1
  • Democrat 70-75%15%▼ 4
  • Democrat 50-55%15%▲ 2
  • Democrat 55-60%9%▼ 11
  • Republican Wins2%▼ 1
  • Democrat 75%+2%▼ 3
  • Democrat 35-45%1%▼ 3
  • Democrat 45-50%1%
  • Democrat 0-35%<1%

How the odds have moved

Democrat 65-70%: 26% on Oct 20, 31% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 21, 7 PM ETDemocrat 65-70%: 25% → 17%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Democrat 65-70% 31% ▲ 16 31¢ 35¢ $2.86 $5.1K
Democrat 60-65% 25% ▲ 1 23¢ 30¢ $3.33 $5.5K
Democrat 70-75% 15% ▼ 4 13¢ 18¢ $5.52 $2.9K
Democrat 50-55% 15% ▲ 2 14¢ 18¢ $5.62 $3.4K
Democrat 55-60% 9% ▼ 11 5¢ 14¢ $7.14 $3K
Republican Wins 2% ▼ 1 0¢ 3¢ $32.26 $778
Democrat 75%+ 2% ▼ 3 0¢ 3¢ $34.48 $653
Democrat 35-45% 1% ▼ 3 0¢ 2¢ $55.56 $436
Democrat 45-50% 1% 0¢ 1¢ $71.43 $1.2K
Democrat 0-35% <1% 0¢ 0¢ $977

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: TX- House Election Margin of Victory

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions