Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party9%
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NY-05 House Election Margin of Victory
The odds
27%Democrat 50-55%
- Democrat 50-55%27%▲ 1
- Democrat 55-60%23%
- Democrat 45-50%21%▼ 3
- Democrat 60-65%11%
- Democrat 30-40%9%▲ 1
- Democrat 65-70%5%
- Democrat 40-45%3%
- Democrat 0-30%3%▼ 1
- Republican Wins1%
- Democrat 70%+<1%
How the odds have moved
Democrat 50-55%: 43% on Oct 20, 27% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 26, 11 PM ETDemocrat 50-55%: 39% → 30%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat 50-55% | 27% | ▲ 1 | 27¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | $9.1K |
| Democrat 55-60% | 23% | 22¢ | 32¢ | $3.13 | $3.4K | |
| Democrat 45-50% | 21% | ▼ 3 | 21¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | $7.9K |
| Democrat 60-65% | 11% | 10¢ | 15¢ | $6.62 | $708 | |
| Democrat 30-40% | 9% | ▲ 1 | 3¢ | 17¢ | $5.78 | $518 |
| Democrat 65-70% | 5% | 3¢ | 9¢ | $11.49 | $743 | |
| Democrat 40-45% | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $28.57 | $2.2K | |
| Democrat 0-30% | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $18.52 | $448 |
| Republican Wins | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $71.43 | $446 | |
| Democrat 70%+ | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $361 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: NY- House Election Margin of Victory
Search ›No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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