MS-04 House Election Margin of Victory (First Round)

Polymarket Elections › House Closes Nov 3 · $41 today · $13.4K traded · $769 at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

22%Republican 40-45%

Republican 40-45%22%
Republican 35-40%22%▲ 5
Republican 30-35%12%▼ 3
Republican 25-30%6%
Republican 45-50%4%
Republican 10-20%4%▲ 3
Republican 50%+4%▲ 1
Republican 0-10%2%
Republican 20-25%1%
Democrat Wins<1%

How the odds have moved

Not enough history yet.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Republican 40-45%	22%		21¢	23¢	$4.35	$3K
Republican 35-40%	22%	▲ 5	21¢	23¢	$4.35	$2.8K
Republican 30-35%	12%	▼ 3	6¢	18¢	$5.52	$3.2K
Republican 25-30%	6%		2¢	10¢	$10.00	$728
Republican 45-50%	4%		1¢	8¢	$12.35	$662
Republican 10-20%	4%	▲ 3	1¢	8¢	$12.82	$577
Republican 50%+	4%	▲ 1	2¢	5¢	$18.87	$662
Republican 0-10%	2%		0¢	3¢	$38.46	$512
Republican 20-25%	1%		0¢	1¢		$806
Democrat Wins	<1%		0¢	1¢		$466

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: MS- House Election Margin of Victory

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$13.4K

Today$41

This week$13.4K

At stake$769

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

The first round of the 2026 MS-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent t

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.