MI-09 House Election Margin of Victory

Polymarket Elections › House Closes Nov 3 · $910 today · $25.8K traded · $2.4K at stake · prices read 9 min ago

The odds

33%Republican 25-30%
  • Republican 25-30%33%▼ 1
  • Republican 20-25%25%▲ 1
  • Republican 15-20%13%
  • Republican 30-35%13%▲ 1
  • Republican 35-40%4%
  • Republican 45%+3%▼ 1
  • Republican 40-45%1%
  • Democrat Wins1%
  • Republican 5-15%<1%
  • Republican 0-5%<1%

How the odds have moved

Republican 25-30%: 13% on Oct 20, 33% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Oct 27, 7 AM ETRepublican 25-30%: 25% → 33%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

  2. Oct 21, 7 PM ETRepublican 25-30%: 16% → 32%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Republican 25-30% 33% ▼ 1 32¢ 33¢ $3.03 $5.8K
Republican 20-25% 25% ▲ 1 23¢ 27¢ $3.70 $5.3K
Republican 15-20% 13% 12¢ 15¢ $6.80 $2.1K
Republican 30-35% 13% ▲ 1 12¢ 14¢ $7.14 $4.1K
Republican 35-40% 4% 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 $3.4K
Republican 45%+ 3% ▼ 1 1¢ 4¢ $23.26 $931
Republican 40-45% 1% 0¢ 2¢ $66.67 $1.1K
Democrat Wins 1% 0¢ 2¢ $62.50 $1.6K
Republican 5-15% <1% 0¢ 0¢ $881
Republican 0-5% <1% 0¢ 0¢ $729

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: MI- House Election Margin of Victory

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions