Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
91%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party91%
- Republican Party9%
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CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual)
The odds
72%Mike Thompson
- Mike Thompson72%
- Eric Jones28%▲ 5
How the odds have moved
Mike Thompson: 79% on Oct 20, 72% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson | 72% | 70¢ | 76¢ | $1.32 | $11.2K | |
| Eric Jones | 28% | ▲ 5 | 25¢ | 31¢ | $3.23 | $7.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Mike Thompson, Eric Jones
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Steve Kerr ally spends record $14.8M to challenge longtime Calif. congressmanDemocratic challenger Eric Jones is facing Rep. Mike Thompson, who is seeking his 15th term in the U.S. House of Representatives for California’s 4th District. Jones makes an appearance at a Democrat party fundraiser in Placer County… -
Following the congressional cash: Mike Thompson vs. Eric JonesU.S. House · California District 4 Follow the money: campaign fundraising, leading donors and outside spending. Updated Oct. 21, 2026. Figures are reported filings, not live balances. The congressional district includes all of Napa… -
Letter: Healthcare is more than a businessCongressional candidate Eric Jones and I share similarities. We are about the same age, attended college in the northeast and both are involved in healthcare. I became a primary care physician, and Mr. Jones became a venture capitalist… -
Elected officials express outrage over ICE actions in WoodlandYolo County Supervisor Angel Barajas is seeking immediate investigation by Woodland police into the hit-and-run of a resident, but he was only one of many elected officials expressing their anger. Although a Woodland Police Department… -
SF: Pelosi Latest Member Of Congress To Receive Suspicious Letter At District OfficeHouse Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, D-San Francisco, is the latest member of Congress to receive a suspicious letter at her district office after similar cases have been reported recently elsewhere involving a powdery substance sent to… -
Student mental health, privacy take center stage at DJUSD candidate forumDJUSD Candidates discuss differing views at League of Women Voters of Yolo County school board forum By SAVANNAH VELA — [email protected] On Oct. 9, The League of Women Voters (LWV) of Yolo County held Candidate Forum 2026: DJUSD Areas 1 &… -
A Second Chance for Faith Leaders: The Bipartisan Clergy ActFree Cybersecurity Webinar for Seniors Oct. 7th & 28th Learn More For Members & Clergy Explore dedicated resources tailored for both members and clergy, offering educational articles, guides, factsheets, and tools to support your financial… -
Jared Huffman’s office received suspicious mail with white powderU.S. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-San Rafael) announced on social media platforms on Tuesday afternoon that his office received a “suspicious letter containing an unknown white powder.” He condemned the actions, adding, “Political violence… -
Federal Agents Knock On Doors To Track Down Possible Noncitizen Voters Ahead Of MidtermsPatch Federal Agents Knock On Doors To Track Down Possible Noncitizen Voters Ahead Of Midterms Critics say that sending armed federal agents to the doors of U.S. residents could be intimidating for legal voters. Armed and in uniform… -
Letter to the U.S. House of Representatives on the Clergy Act (April 14, 2026)The Honorable Mike JohnsonSpeaker of the HouseU.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Dear Speaker Johnson and Leader Jeffries, Priests and religious have spent their lives in service to Christ by ministering to the faithful and… -
Letter: A campaign full of contradictionsEric Jones seems to operate his campaign from one overarching strategy — be all things to all voters. I have looked at his campaign websites; there are too many contradictory ideas to count. Taken one by one, they sound good, but together… - Fong’s bipartisan Clergy Act signed into lawBipartisan legislation led by U.S. Rep. Vince Fong (R-CA) to provide pastors and clergy members with improved retirement security became law on Tuesday with the president’s signature. “I’m proud this bipartisan legislation passed both…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions