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Will Nous Research launch a token by ___?
The odds
- December 31, 20268%▲ 1
- March 31, 202724%
- June 30, 202728%▼ 1
- September 30, 202728%▼ 1
- December 31, 202728%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
December 31, 2026: 8% on Oct 20, 8% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $2.9K | ||
| December 31, 2026 | 8% | ▲ 1 | 5¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | $1.1K |
| March 31, 2027 | 24% | 13¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | $237 | |
| June 30, 2027 | 28% | ▼ 1 | 23¢ | 39¢ | $2.56 | $2.7K |
| September 30, 2027 | 28% | ▼ 1 | 18¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | $5K |
| December 31, 2027 | 28% | ▲ 1 | 22¢ | 29¢ | $3.45 | $5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Nous Research
Search ›-
Slow and Steady: An Agent That Runs My Apify Side Business While I SleepThis is a submission for the Hacktoberfest Open-Source AI Challenge Week 3: Slow and Steady Every morning, on its own, it: The sloth philosophy, applied: conserve energy, let the machine do the rounds. Real, unedited output from this… -
Why Raw API Keys in AI Agents Fail: Architecting Read-Live / Write-Draft MCP CleanroomsOver the past 48 hours, "Unauthorized AI Agents in Corporate Bank Accounts & CRMs" has trended across X and engineering forums. The root cause is rarely a frontier model hallucination—it is almost always an architectural failure: giving an… -
Introducing Agent Compute Engine and expanded agent governanceSee how co-designed, open systems scale AI on November 9 Blog authors: Nirav Mehta, VP Product Management; Michael Bachman, VP/GM; Kevin Hutchins, VP Product Management Scaling Gemini to planet scale taught us firsthand that securely… - First look at the Asus ProArt P16 powered by Nvidia’s RTX SparkA premium Arm laptop with serious GPU muscle and a promising software ecosystem. First sighting of RTX Spark (Asus ProArt P6) out in the wild. (Source: JPR) Nvidia provided a unit to JPR for evaluation ahead of the October 16 launch—the…
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NVIDIA says European partners are adopting Vera CPUs for AI infrastructureBlockchain News NVIDIA said European technology partners are building with its Vera CPU to support the next wave of AI infrastructure, as the company pushes the chip for agentic computing workloads that depend on fast CPU-side processing… -
AI Daily Digest October 19, 2026: OpenAI Details Four Agent Boundary Crossings, Yelp and Wall Street Block Agents, Cohere Buys AISLESeven stories from the past 24 hours, each anchored to at least one official source. This edition is about the walls going up on both sides: agents testing what they can cross, and everyone from federal agencies to banks to review sites… -
ASUS ProArt P16 and P14 RTX Spark Laptops now available in the UAENew AI-powered creator laptops start at Dh12,999, with a free ASUS MD200 Silent Plus Mouse Dubai: ASUS has announced that its new ProArt P16 (H7607) and ProArt P14 (H7407) laptops are now available to buy through the ASUS eShop and major… -
ASUS ProArt P16 and P14, Powered by NVIDIA RTX Spark, Now Shipping in CanadaTogether, Hermes Agent and ComfyUI deliver a compelling local-first, cloud-flexible AI experience. By bringing industry-validated workflows and agent-connected creative tools to users’ own PCs, they enable generative AI creation and… -
Nebius backs Europe’s AI builders with $10M in compute, capital, and community programsFollowing last month’s global launch, we’re expanding support for AI builders across Europe with more compute grants, founder funding opportunities, and hands-on community programs that bring developers together to build, experiment, and… -
NVIDIA RTX Spark PCs Available Today - A New Beginning for Windows PCsNew Windows Computers Bring Together NVIDIA Blackwell RTX Graphics, CUDA and AI Technologies With up to 128GB of Unified Memory to Deliver a New Class of PC NVIDIA RTX Spark Laptops NVIDIA RTX Spark laptops are available today from ASUS… -
Reflection Releases Beam’s Open Weights Under Apache 2.0 LicenseReflection released the weights for Beam, its first open-weight model, on Hugging Face under an Apache 2.0 license on October 16, 2026, and Baseten brought the 501B-parameter mixture-of-experts model to its platform with day-0 support… -
ASUS ProArt P16 & P14, Powered by NVIDIA RTX Spark, Now Available for Purchase in the United StatesNew ProArt laptops combine high-capacity unified memory, open agent and workflow ecosystems, and ASUS AI applications for private, customizable creation without token limits Fremont, CA, Oct. 16, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- ASUS ProArt P16…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use.