France declares state of emergency by...?
8%December 31
- October 211%
- October 312%▼ 1
- December 318%▼ 10
Install
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...?
The odds
18%March 31, 2027
- December 31, 20268%
- March 31, 202718%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
December 31, 2026: 12% on Oct 20, 8% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 8% | 7¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $29K | |
| March 31, 2027 | 18% | ▲ 1 | 13¢ | 23¢ | $4.35 | $9.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Nigel Farage, Reform UK
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Nigel Farage erupts at Burnham Brexit betrayal as Angela Rayner hints at EU schemeNigel Farage has hit out at a Brexit betrayal after an arch-Remainer and ally of Andy Burnham hinted she would back rejoining freedom of movement. Reports emerged that Mr Burnham is open to heading back into the scheme, which allows for… -
Burnham accused of ‘total betrayal’ over possible return to free movement with EU – as Nigel Farage slams ‘deluded’ PMANDY Burnham has been accused of a “total betrayal” after paving the way for a return to freedom of movement with the EU. The Prime Minister said he wanted an “honest discussion” about immigration ties to the EU as part of a new… -
The Real Nigel Farage by John Sweeney: Author offers a trial of the protagonistA hearing from which defence counsel is largely absent and where the voters must be the ultimate judge The Real Nigel Farage by John Sweeney: Author offers a trial of the protagonist A hearing from which defence counsel is largely absent… -
Woman Admits Assaulting Nigel Farage With Milkshake HurlA woman pleaded guilty on Monday to assault by beating after throwing a milkshake over Reform UK leader Nigel Farage outside a pub in Clacton-on-Sea during the general election campaign. Victoria Thomas Bowen, 25, also admitted criminal… -
'Stakes could not be higher as Labour take the fight to Nigel Farage and Reform'Lucy Powell tore into Nigel Farage(Image: Getty Images) Being elected as Labour’s Deputy Leader one year ago was a true honour. I promised to take back the political megaphone and set out a clear message of what we stand for and whose side… -
Labour surge to their largest poll lead since the general election - with Tories ahead of Reform UK as Kemi Badenoch's popularity growsLabour has surged to its largest poll lead since the 2024 general election as the party continues to enjoy a 'bounce' under Andy Burnham's leadership. The latest Ipsos survey puts Labour on 32 per cent support, which is up five percentage… - Reform UK’s support collapses in major boost for Burnham, new poll showsThe latest Ipsos poll would give Andy Burnham a majority for Labour in a general election Support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has collapsed, giving Kemi Badenoch’s Tories their biggest lead over them since the general election in 2024 and…
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Nigel Farage would lose head-to-head contest to every other political leader except Zack Polanski, poll showsReform leader even beaten by the head of the party that has outflanked his on the right, Restore’s Rupert Lowe Nigel Farage would lose in a direct head-to-head with every other political leader except Zack Polanski, a new survey has shown… -
Reform UK Wales slated for 'shameful' Aberfan videoThere has been an outpouring of anger after Reform UK Wales posted an Aberfan ‘tribute’ video described as ‘opportunistic’ and ‘shameful’. The clip opens with Jenner mentioning Aberfan but as the video progresses she begins to promote… -
Is Nigel Farage branding working class racist? Why his 'pub banter' excuse is beyond the paleNigel Farage has been slammed for his response to a series of racist remarks by Reform politicians and accused of potentially describing working class people as racist. Shocking comments by Reform politicians were caught on camera in an… -
Reform UK's £40billion plan of 'emergency cuts' to save 'broke Britain'Mr Jenrick is calling on the Chancellor to use £18billion of savings to hike the tax-free personal allowance to £15,000. He argues this would “leave the average household £1,000 better off”. He said: “We can’t go on like this. Britain is… -
Reform UK Donor’s Former Business Links to Iranian Foundation Revealed in French Court DocumentsA French arbitration judgment has revealed that a British businessman who has become a financial supporter of Nigel Farage previously invested in an Iranian telecommunications venture partly owned by a religious foundation subsequently…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions