Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

Polymarket Crypto › Bitcoin Closes Dec 31 · $24.1K traded · $4.2K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

The odds

2%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 2% on Oct 20, 2% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Yes	2%		2¢	2¢	$45.45	$24.1K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Adam Back, Satoshi

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Circle Unveils Quantum Security Roadmap for ArcCoinMarketCap Academy · 2 days agoThe rollout will begin with quantum-proof wallets and signatures at Arc's mainnet launch, currently expected sometime in 2026. Stablecoin issuer Circle has published a post-quantum security roadmap for its layer-1 blockchain Arc, outlining…
Blockstream Launches Institutional Consulting Services, Opens Lugano OfficeBitcoin Magazine · 3 days agoBlockstream will offer its engineering expertise to banks and asset managers from a new Swiss base. Blockstream has launched a consulting business for financial institutions and opened an office in Lugano, Switzerland, the company shared…
Changpeng Zhao and Vitalik Buterin Warn AI Poses Risks To BitcoinCrypto Economy · 3 days agoHome > Bitcoin News > Changpeng Zhao and Vitalik Buterin Warn AI Poses Risks To Bitcoin Changpeng Zhao (CZ), founder of Binance, warned that artificial intelligence could pose a threat to Bitcoin users even without breaking its…
MLB Picks: Single Game Picks for Rays vs. Brewers Game 2RotoWire · 3 days agoThe Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers meet at American Family Field for Game 2 of the World Series on Saturday night at 8 p.m. ET. Milwaukee picked up a 3-2 victory in the series opener, cashing as moderate favorites (-182) as the Under…
CZ and Vitalik downplay AI crypto threat as Bitcoin Core rewrites bug rulesCryptopolitan · 4 days agoChangpeng Zhao (CZ) does not believe AI needs to actually crack Bitcoin’s cryptography to cause harm, the Binance founder and former CEO said on Friday. Those comments came just as Bitcoin Core revised the plan on how it will disclose bugs…
'Checkmate Satoshi?' Adam Back Reacts to Ledger Cofounder's Take on AI's ECDSA FindingsBitget · 9 days agoNicolas Bacca, co-founder of Ledger, commented in an X post after Claude revealed the origins of the ECDSA curve, saying "Checkmate Satoshi" in what seems to be a playful statement. In under half an hour, Claude discovered the origins of…
Bitcoin's 200-week average hits $65K, signaling potential post-bear market rally and $1.5M target by 2030.Pluang · 6 days agoBlockstream CEO Adam Back highlighted Bitcoin's 200-week moving average crossing $65,000, a level historically linked to price increases after bear markets. He noted that major banks recommend Bitcoin allocations between 2% and 4%, with…
MASTERS OF THE UNIVERSEWhy So Blu? · 6 days agoReunited after 15 years, the Sword of Power leads Prince Adam back to Eternia where he discovers his home under the fiendish rule of Skeletor. To save his world, Adam must join forces with his closest allies and embrace his true destiny as…
Liquid Says Bitcoin Swaps Are Restored While Peg-Outs Stay FrozenCryptoNews · 6 days agoLiquid Network said on Oct. 20 that it had restored semi-automated swaps between bitcoin and L-$BTC, offering holders a route to bitcoin through supported providers while direct federation redemptions remain suspended. The federation’s…
Liquid Network Announces Final Stages of Recovery Following Massive HackBitcoin Magazine · 6 days agoOne month after hackers pinched 4,000 bitcoins, the Liquid Network is up and running again. The Liquid Network on Tuesday said that things were up and running again, over one month after hackers stole 4,000 bitcoin, worth about $320…
Two Kitchens, One Table | SATOSHI x KINDLINGHoneycombers Bali · 8 days agoA Guide To The Best Restaurants, Bars, Hotels and Things to Do in Bali 28 Oct 202608:00 pm - 11:59 pm Satoshi BaliJl. Raya Bumbak No.55, Kerobokan, Kec. Kuta Utara, Kabupaten Badung, Bali 80361 An evening of culinary exchange comes to…
Satoshi-Era Bitcoin Holders Move $33.85M in BTC After 12 Years, Record 638x GainsZyCrypto · 7 days agoTwo Bitcoin (BTC) wallets that had remained dormant for more than 12 years have become active, transferring a combined 417 BTC worth approximately $33.85 million. According to a Sunday tweet from blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain…

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Crypto › Bitcoin

What price will Bitcoin hit in October?

$83,840high with an even chance

Traders see an even chance of trading as high as $83,840 and as low as $77,525.

Reaches $82,50091%
Reaches $85,00014%

Falls to $80,000>99%
Falls to $77,50050%

Already reached: ↑ 85,000, ↓ 82,500, ↓ 80,000, ↓ 85,000, ↑ 85,000, ↓ 85,000

Crypto › Bitcoin

Bitcoin above ___ on October 25?

$81,000median

$70,000$94,000

Median $81,000Middle half $80,499 – $81,501

Crypto › Bitcoin

What price will Bitcoin hit October 19-25?

<1%↑ 96,000

Reaches $82,000<1%
Reaches $84,000<1%

Falls to $78,000<1%
Falls to $76,000<1%

Already reached: ↑ 84,000, ↓ 80,000, ↓ 82,000, ↓ 82,000, ↓ 84,000, ↑ 82,000

Crypto › Bitcoin

What price will Bitcoin hit on October 25?

<1%↑ 88,000

Reaches $81,000<1%
Reaches $82,000<1%

Falls to $79,000<1%
Falls to $78,000<1%

Already reached: ↓ 80,000

Crypto › Bitcoin

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

42%↑ 90,000

Reaches $90,00042%
Reaches $95,00025%

Falls to $70,00041%
Falls to $65,00024%

Already reached: ↓ 60,000, ↑ 85,000, ↑ 80,000, ↑ 75,000, ↑ 70,000, ↑ 65,000

Crypto › Bitcoin

Bitcoin price on October 25?

$81,000median

$70,000$92,000

Median $81,000Middle half $80,497 – $81,503

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesDec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$24.1K

At stake$4.2K

In the news1 headlines today, 3 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Adam Back is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Adam Back was a member of that group will qualify. Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions