KY-06 House Election Winner

Polymarket Elections › House Closes Nov 3 · $444 today · $1K traded · $21.9K at stake · prices read 32 min ago

The odds

53%Ralph Alvarado (R)

Ralph Alvarado (R)53%▼ 1
Zach Dembo (D)47%▼ 1

How the odds have moved

Ralph Alvarado (R): 66% on Oct 20, 53% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

Oct 21, 8 PM ETRalph Alvarado (R): 66% → 59%

No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Traded
Ralph Alvarado (R)	53%	▼ 1	52¢	54¢	$1.85	$38.3K
Zach Dembo (D)	47%	▼ 1	46¢	47¢	$2.13	$62K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: KY- House

Search ›

Alvarado distances himself from Trump on Iran war, tariffs in KY House debate with DemboYahoo News · 4 days agoThe candidates for Central Kentucky's 6th Congressional District held their only debate of the campaign Thursday night, and the surprise of the evening was Republican Ralph Alvarado putting some daylight between himself and Republican…
KY House District featuring part of Lexington comes down to incumbent, ousted predecessorLexington Herald Leader · 7 days agoVoters in Kentucky’s House District 45 should recognize both men running for state representative Nov. 3. There’s the incumbent, freshman state Rep. Adam Moore, D-Lexington, who is finishing a two-year term in Frankfort. And there’s former…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Search. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenuePolymarket

Trading closesNov 3, 2026 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1K

Today$444

This week$39.5K

At stake$21.9K

In the news1 headlines today, 3 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time

The full rules are on the market's page at Polymarket.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions