Which party will win the U.S. House? (2026)
90%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party90%▼ 1
- Republican Party10%
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CA-04 House Election Winner
The odds
99%Democratic Party
- Democratic Party99%
- Republican Party<1%
How the odds have moved
Democratic Party: 97% on Oct 20, 99% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | $39K | ||
| Republican Party | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $13K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Democratic Party, Republican Party
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Michigan sheriff to leaves Democratic Party over shift to the leftSaginaw County Sheriff William Federspiel joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discusses leaving the Democratic Party and endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race. Michigan sheriff to leaves Democratic Party over shift to… -
'Dead Within the Democratic Party': How AIPAC's Electoral Adventure UnraveledThe lobby's retreat from candidate endorsements follows an election cycle in which targeted Democrats turned AIPAC's spending against it – and former allies questioned what its millions had accomplished 'Dead Within the Democratic Party'… -
OC Republican Party pounces on mailer it calls ‘racially degrading’A political mailer depicting Republican candidate Gracey Van Der Mark as a sticker logo on a cluster of bananas is receiving harsh criticism from the Orange County Republican Party. In social media posts on Thursday, Oct. 22, the OC GOP… -
Early voting numbers up among Black voters, according to LA Democratic PartyBATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Nearly 300,000 ballots have been cast in the first four days of early voting in Louisiana, and Black voters are making up a larger share of that total than they did in 2022. “We went from 23.4% of early ballots in… -
Peltola, Democratic Party move to intervene in DOJ election lawsuitThe U.S. Senate campaign of Democrat Mary Peltola is among those asking a federal judge to dismiss a Department of Justice lawsuit that seeks to block election results if she wins. The lawsuit, which President Donald Trump said he… -
Lubbock County Republican Party chairman releases statement ahead of President Trump’s visitLUBBOCK, Texas (KCBD) - Statement from Chairman Ken Adams Regarding President Donald J. Trump’s Visit to Lubbock, Texas “The Lubbock County Republican Party is honored to welcome President Donald J. Trump to Lubbock on Tuesday, October 27… - Neil Bush Backs Texas Democrat James Talarico, Citing Damage Done To Republican PartyBy David Prior | Oct 24, 2026 | Featured, News & Analysis, Politics Neil Bush, son of former President George H.W. Bush and brother of former President George W. Bush, has publicly endorsed Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico…
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Francis Suarez: Hispanic voters are shifting away from the Democratic PartyFormer Miami Mayor Francis Suarez discusses the shifting political alignment of Hispanic voters and President Donald Trump's upcoming Florida rally. Suarez highlights key issues driving voters toward the GOP ahead of the midterm elections… -
Effort to stop TV stations from running Hope Florida ad blockedOctober 25, 2026 / 8:57 AM EDT / CBS Miami Attorney General James Uthmeier, the Republican Party of Florida and at least two state attorneys, threatened legal action – and possible criminal prosecution – if TV stations ran ads about the… -
“How the Consulting Class Is Eating the Democratic Party”An essay by Adam Bonica and Jake Grumbach in the New Republic on the drain political consultants place on the Democratic Party. Their proposal, ultimately, is a short set of parameters for paid consultants that could be adopted as internal… -
GALLERY – Former Vice President Kamala D. Harris visited Columbus, Mississippi, to headline a get-out-the-vote rally in support of Democratic Party senatorial nominee Scott Colom ahead of the Nov. 3rd electionFor Black Mississippians and the broader African American community. The Jackson Advocate is Mississippi's oldest Black-owned newspaper that educates, informs, celebrates, and empowers by focusing on issues and achievements that matter… -
Democrats, voting-rights groups challenge Trump's bid to block Alaska Senate certificationDemocratic groups and voting-rights advocates are seeking to join a federal lawsuit to stop the Justice Department's effort to prevent Alaska from certifying its U.S. Senate election results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The…
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Search, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Search index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Search Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions